Cost-effectiveness of leveraging existing HIV primary health systems and community health workers for hypertension screening and treatment in Africa: an individual-based modelling study.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality is increasing in Africa, largely due to undiagnosed and untreated hypertension. Approaches that leverage existing primary health systems could improve hypertension treatment and reduce CVD, but cost-effectiveness is unknown. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and implementation of chronic care clinics across eastern, southern, central, and western Africa.

The effect on HIV transmission and cost-effectiveness of programmes for female sex workers in East, Central, and Southern Africa: a modelling study.

Background: HIV prevalence and incidence has declined in East, Central, and Southern Africa (ECSA), but remains high among female sex workers (FSWs). Sex worker programmes have the potential to considerably increase access to HIV testing, prevention, and treatment. We aimed to quantify these improvements by modelling the potential effect of sex worker programmes at two different intensities on HIV incidence and key health outcomes, and assessed the programmes' potential cost-effectiveness in order to help inform HIV policy decisions.

A risk-differentiated, community-led intervention to strengthen uptake and engagement with HIV prevention and care cascades among female sex workers in Zimbabwe (AMETHIST): a cluster randomised trial.

Background: Female sex workers remain disproportionately affected by HIV. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of risk-differentiated, peer-led support for female sex workers in Zimbabwe on the risk of HIV acquisition and HIV transmission from sex among female sex workers.

Methods: In this cluster randomised, open-label, controlled study, 22 clinics dedicated to female sex workers co-located in government health facilities throughout Zimbabwe were allocated (1:1, through restricted randomisation) to usual care or AMETHIST intervention.

Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) related changes in BMI and risk of diabetes: a prospective study from the RESPOND cohort consortium.

Background: With integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) use associated with increased body mass index (BMI) and BMI increases associated with higher diabetes mellitus (DM) risk, this study explored the relationship between INSTI/non-INSTI regimens, BMI changes, and DM risk.

Methods: RESPOND participants were included if they had CD4, HIV RNA, and ≥ 2 BMI measurements during follow up. Those with prior DM were excluded.

Associations between change in BMI and the risk of hypertension and dyslipidaemia in people receiving integrase strand-transfer inhibitors, tenofovir alafenamide, or both compared with other contemporary antiretroviral regimens: a multicentre, prospective observational study from the RESPOND consortium cohorts.

Background: Integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) and tenofovir alafenamide have been associated with weight gain in several clinical trials and observational cohorts. However, whether weight gain associated with INSTIs and tenofovir alafenamide confers a higher risk of weight-related clinical events is unclear. We aimed to assess whether changes in BMI differentially increase hypertension or dyslipidaemia risk in people with HIV receiving INSTIs, tenofovir alafenamide, or both versus other contemporary regimens.

A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.

Background: Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa.

Potential cost-effectiveness of community availability of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for HIV prevention and treatment in east, central, southern, and west Africa: a modelling analysis.

Background: Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) offers protection from HIV after condomless sex, but is not widely available in a timely manner in east, central, southern, and west Africa. To inform the potential pilot implementation of such an approach, we modelled the effect and cost-effectiveness of making PEP consisting of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir (TLD) freely and locally available in communities without prescription, with the aim of enabling PEP use within 24 h of condomless sex. Free community availability of TLD (referred to as community TLD) might also result in some use of TLD as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and as antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV.

Trends in Cancer Incidence in Different Antiretroviral Treatment-Eras amongst People with HIV.

Despite cancer being a leading comorbidity amongst individuals with HIV, there are limited data assessing cancer trends across different antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eras. We calculated age-standardised cancer incidence rates (IRs) from 2006-2021 in two international cohort collaborations (D:A:D and RESPOND). Poisson regression was used to assess temporal trends, adjusted for potential confounders.

Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models.

Background: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been a recommended HIV prevention strategy in sub-Saharan Africa since 2007, particularly in countries with high HIV prevalence. However, given the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes, it is not clear whether VMMC still represents a cost-effective use of scarce HIV programme resources.

Methods: Using five existing well described HIV mathematical models, we compared continuation of VMMC for 5 years in men aged 15 years and older to no further VMMC in South Africa, Malawi, and Zimbabwe and across a range of setting scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa.

Associations between integrase strand-transfer inhibitors and cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV: a multicentre prospective study from the RESPOND cohort consortium.

Background: Although associations between older antiretroviral drug classes and cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV are well described, there is a paucity of data regarding a possible association with integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (INSTIs). We investigated whether exposure to INSTIs was associated with an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease.

Methods: RESPOND is a prospective, multicentre, collaboration study between 17 pre-existing European and Australian cohorts and includes more than 32 000 adults living with HIV in clinical care after Jan 1, 2012.

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

Background: Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective.

Methods: We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa.

Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor Use and Cancer Incidence in a Large Cohort Setting.

Background: Limited data exist examining the association between incident cancer and cumulative integrase inhibitor (INSTI) exposure.

Methods: Participants were followed from baseline (latest of local cohort enrollment or January 1, 2012) until the earliest of first cancer, final follow-up, or December 31, 2019. Negative binomial regression was used to assess associations between cancer incidence and time-updated cumulative INSTI exposure, lagged by 6 months.

Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns among female sex workers in Zimbabwe.

Objectives: To estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe: using HIV prevalence by age and number of years since started selling sex (YSSS).

Design: We pooled data from FSW aged 18-39 participating in respondent-driven sampling surveys conducted in Zimbabwe between 2011 and 2017.

Methods: For each year of age, we estimated: HIV prevalence ( Pt ) and the change in HIV prevalence from the previous age ( Pt - Pt -1 ).

The risks and benefits of providing HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions.

Contemporary antiretrovirals and body-mass index: a prospective study of the RESPOND cohort consortium.

Background: Weight gain effects of individual antiretroviral drugs are not fully understood. We investigated associations between a prespecified clinically significant increase (>7%) in body-mass index (BMI) and contemporary antiretroviral use.

Methods: The International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Diseases (RESPOND) is a prospective, multicohort collaboration, including data from 17 well established cohorts and over 29 000 people living with HIV.

The potential role of long-acting injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine in the treatment of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling analysis.

Background: The use of a combination of the integrase inhibitor, cabotegravir, and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, rilpivirine, in a long-acting injectable form is being considered as an antiretroviral treatment option for people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to model the effects of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine to help to inform its potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under different possible policies for its introduction.

Methods: We used an existing individual-based model of HIV to predict the effects of introducing monthly injections of cabotegravir-rilpivirine for people with HIV in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Clinical Outcomes of 2-Drug Regimens vs 3-Drug Regimens in Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

Background: Limited data exist that compare clinical outcomes of 2-drug regimens (2DRs) and 3-drug regimens (3DRs) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus.

Methods: Antiretroviral treatment-experienced individuals in the International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Diseases (RESPOND) who switched to a new 2DR or 3DR from 1 January 2012-1 October 2018 were included. The incidence of clinical events (AIDS, non-AIDS cancer, cardiovascular disease, end-stage liver and renal disease, death) was compared between regimens using Poisson regression.

Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods: In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020.

Updated assessment of risks and benefits of dolutegravir versus efavirenz in new antiretroviral treatment initiators in sub-Saharan Africa: modelling to inform treatment guidelines.

Background: The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is being considered in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa instead of efavirenz for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of superior tolerability and a lower risk of resistance emergence. WHO requested updated modelling results for its 2019 Antiretroviral Guidelines update, which was restricted to the choice of dolutegravir or efavirenz in new ART initiators. In response to this request, we modelled the risks and benefits of alternative policies for initial first-line ART regimens.

Uptake and Discontinuation of Integrase Inhibitors (INSTIs) in a Large Cohort Setting.

Background: Despite increased integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) use, limited large-scale, real-life data exists on INSTI uptake and discontinuation.

Setting: International multicohort collaboration.

Methods: RESPOND participants starting dolutegravir (DTG), elvitegravir (EVG), or raltegravir (RAL) after January 1, 2012 were included.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance.

Introduction: Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation.

Methods: We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance.