An algorithm to estimate the real time secondary infections in sub-urban bus travel: COVID-19 epidemic experience at Chennai Metropolitan city India.

Unlabelled: Globalization, global climatic changes, and human behavior pose threats to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus spillover from animals to human. Current SARS-CoV2 transmission continues in several countries despite drastic reduction in COVID-19 cases following world-wide containment measures including RNA vaccines. China reimposed lockdown in November 2022 following the surge in commercial hubs.

Prediction of the Transition From Subexponential to the Exponential Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Chennai, India: Epidemic Nowcasting.

Background: Several countries adopted lockdown to slowdown the exponential transmission of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Disease transmission models and the epidemic forecasts at the national level steer the policy to implement appropriate intervention strategies and budgeting. However, it is critical to design a data-driven reliable model for nowcasting for smaller populations, in particular metro cities.

Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation.

Background: The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India.

Objective: The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India.