Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
November 2023
Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback that is not easily reversed. A hypothesized mechanism for such bistability is feedback between fire and vegetation, where fire spreads as a contagion process on grass patches.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIn the study of dynamics on networks, moment closure is a commonly used method to obtain low-dimensional evolution equations amenable to analysis. The variables in the evolution equations are mean counts of subgraph states and are referred to as moments. Due to interaction between neighbors, each moment equation is a function of higher-order moments, such that an infinite hierarchy of equations arises.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFObserved bimodal tree cover distributions at particular environmental conditions and theoretical models indicate that some areas in the tropics can be in either of the alternative stable vegetation states forest or savanna. However, when including spatial interaction in nonspatial differential equation models of a bistable quantity, only the state with the lowest potential energy remains stable. Our recent reaction-diffusion model of Amazonian tree cover confirmed this and was able to reproduce the observed spatial distribution of forest versus savanna satisfactorily when forced by heterogeneous environmental and anthropogenic variables, even though bistability was underestimated.
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