Publications by authors named "B N Porfiriev"

This article is a supplemented and updated version of the report at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development on September 21, 2021. The authors analyze the main opportunities and risks of implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. The key role of the global climate agenda, determined by the leading countries of the world, primarily the European Union, in shaping the institutional environment that influences decision making in the field of national economic policy, is emphasized.

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The methodology and results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of the most negative global climate change IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) representative for the conditions of the Russian Arctic in the form of thawing and degradation of permafrost for healthcare facilities in eight Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are discussed. It is shown that the additional costs associated with these consequences for the maintenance and restoration of healthcare facilities in 2021-2050 may amount to about ₽60 bln, or about ₽2 bln per year (in 2021 prices) at the average rate of permafrost degradation and increase thawing depth, rising to ₽219 bln (₽7.

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The relationship and interaction between natural science and sociohumanities knowledge and methods of studying global and regional climate changes and their socioeconomic consequences are analyzed. It is argued that the methodological and instrumental basis of the interaction above involve risk theory and modeling. The key results include a comprehensive assessment and forecast of climatic risks of socioeconomic development, which make up the basis of the development of effective strategies for sustainable long-term development.

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The emergency management policy as an organic component of the national development policy in contemporary Russia exists only for a slight more than a decade. However, its basic trends and directions could be revealed. In the legislative area covering technological accidents involving hazardous materials these include increasing differentiation of acts in terms of issue coverage, gradual integration of legislation via enforcement of the so-called systemic (umbrella) acts and increasing incorporation of specific acts, and keeping dominance of federal emergency acts.

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