Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

A Case Report: Cornerstone Health Care Reduced the Total Cost of Care Through Population Segmentation and Care Model Redesign.

Over the course of a single year, Cornerstone Health Care, a multispecialty group practice in North Carolina, redesigned the underlying care models for 5 of its highest-risk populations-late-stage congestive heart failure, oncology, Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibles, those with 5 or more chronic conditions, and the most complex patients with multiple late-stage chronic conditions. At the 1-year mark, the results of the program were analyzed. Overall costs for the patients studied were reduced by 12.

Protecting patients from harm: design and implementation of an institutional bloodborne pathogen protocol.

Background: Patients are sometimes exposed to the blood of health care workers (HCWs) while receiving medical care. No national guidelines exist that authoritatively articulate the responsibility of HCWs infected with a potentially transmissible bloodborne pathogen (BBP). Geisinger Health System crafted and implemented a policy delineating the responsibilities of an HCW in the event of accidental blood exposure of a patient, specifically addressing HCWs known to be infected with a BBP.

Value and the medical home: effects of transformed primary care.

Background: The primary care medical home has been promoted to integrate and improve patient care while reducing healthcare spending, but with little formal study of the model or evidence of its efficacy. ProvenHealth Navigator (PHN), an intensive multidimensional medical home model that addresses care delivery and financing, was introduced into 11 different primary care practices. The goals were to improve the quality, efficiency, and patient experience of care.

"ProvenCareSM": a provider-driven pay-for-performance program for acute episodic cardiac surgical care.

Objective: To test whether an integrated delivery system could successfully implement an evidence-based pay-for-performance program for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.

Methods: The program consisted of 3 components: (1) establishing implementable best practices; (2) developing risk-based pricing; (3) establishing a mechanism for patient engagement. Surgeons reviewed all class I and IIa "2004 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Guidelines for CABG Surgery" and translated them into 40 verifiable behaviors.