Modelling the role of tourism in the spread of HIV: A case study from Malaysia.

This study aimed to assess the role of tourism in the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) using Malaysian epidemiological data on HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence from 1986 to 2004. A population-level mathematical model was developed with the following compartments: the population susceptible to HIV infection, the clinically confirmed HIV-positive population, the population diagnosed with AIDS, and the tourist population. Additionally, newborns infected with HIV were considered.

Economic losses due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Ethiopian cattle.

Ethiopia's cattle population is among the largest in Africa and is burdened by frequent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. FMD is caused by several distinct and highly contagious viral strains that can result in acute disease in cattle, causing losses in productivity and impeding international trade. This economic simulation study considered four main sources of losses due to FMD in cattle: reduced milk yield, draft power yield, fertility, and increased mortality.

Social network analysis reveals the failure of between-farm movement restrictions to reduce Salmonella transmission.

An increasing number of countries are investigating options to stop the spread of the emerging zoonotic infection Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin), which mainly spreads among bovines and with cattle manure. Detailed surveillance and cattle movement data from an 11-yr period in Denmark provided an opportunity to gain new knowledge for mitigation options through a combined social network and simulation modeling approach.

Global losses due to dairy cattle diseases: A comorbidity-adjusted economic analysis.

An economic simulation was carried out over 183 milk-producing countries to estimate the global economic impacts of 12 dairy cattle diseases and health conditions: mastitis (subclinical and clinical), lameness, paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), displaced abomasum, dystocia, metritis, milk fever, ovarian cysts, retained placenta, and ketosis (subclinical and clinical). Estimates of disease impacts on milk yield, fertility, and culling were collected from the literature, standardized, meta-analyzed using a variety of methods ranging from simple averaging to random-effects models, and adjusted for comorbidities to prevent overestimation. These comorbidity-adjusted disease impacts were then combined with a set of country-level estimates for lactational incidence or prevalence or both, herd characteristics, and price estimates within a series of Monte Carlo simulations that estimated and valued the economic losses due to these diseases.

Review state-of-the-art of output-based methodological approaches for substantiating freedom from infection.

A wide variety of control and surveillance programmes that are designed and implemented based on country-specific conditions exists for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated. This heterogeneity renders difficult the comparison of probabilities of freedom from infection estimated from collected surveillance data. The objectives of this review were to outline the methodological and epidemiological considerations for the estimation of probabilities of freedom from infection from surveillance information and review state-of-the-art methods estimating the probabilities of freedom from infection from heterogeneous surveillance data.