Behavioral science should start by assuming people are reasonable.

Should policymaking assume humans are irrational? Using empirical, theoretical, and philosophical arguments, we suggest a more useful frame is that human behavior is reasonable. Through identifying goals and systemic factors shaping behavior, we suggest that assuming people are reasonable enables behavioral science to be more effective in shaping public policy.

Health, Wellbeing, and Social Interaction: An International and Demographic Analysis of Perceived Life Changes and the Positives and Negatives of the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Research suggests that people's experiences of COVID-19 lockdowns have been detrimental to their lives and wellbeing. The current research compared the experiences and perceptions on health, wellbeing and social interaction of 300 UK adults and 450 adults in California. Individuals reported whether aspects of their life had changed for the better, worse, or not at all during lockdown in April 2020, and what the "best" and "worst" things about lockdown were.

The seductive allure of technical language and its effect on covid-19 vaccine beliefs and intentions.

Previous research has demonstrated a 'seductive allure' of technical or reductive language such that bad (e.g., circular) explanations are judged better when irrelevant technical terms are included.

What Should I Trust? Individual Differences in Attitudes to Conflicting Information and Misinformation on COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes a novel threat and traditional and new media provide people with an abundance of information and misinformation on the topic. In the current study, we investigated who tends to trust what type of mis/information. The data were collected in Norway from a sample of 405 participants during the first wave of COVID-19 in April 2020.

Persistence is futile: Chasing of past performance in repeated investment choices.

When deciding where to invest, individuals choose mutual funds based on recent past performance, despite standard mandated disclaimers that "past performance does not guarantee future results." Investors would receive better long-term returns by choosing funds with lower fees. We explored the impact of fees and past performance on realistic mutual fund selections across three preregistered repeated-choice experiments ( = 1,600), while manipulating the presence of disclaimers between participants.

Cognitive Predictors of Precautionary Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The attempts to mitigate the unprecedented health, economic, and social disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are largely dependent on establishing compliance to behavioral guidelines and rules that reduce the risk of infection. Here, by conducting an online survey that tested participants' knowledge about the disease and measured demographic, attitudinal, and cognitive variables, we identify predictors of self-reported social distancing and hygiene behavior. To investigate the cognitive processes underlying health-prevention behavior in the pandemic, we co-opted the dual-process model of thinking to measure participants' propensities for automatic and intuitive thinking vs.

Are People Experiencing the 'Pains of Imprisonment' During the COVID-19 Lockdown?

Background: By the end of March 2020, more than a fifth of the world's population was in various degrees of "lockdown" in order to slow the spread of COVID-19. This enforced confinement led some to liken lockdown to imprisonment. We directly compared individual's experiences of lockdown with prisoners' experiences of imprisonment in order to determine whether psychological parallels can be drawn between these two forms of confinement.

Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk.

Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors.

Retrospective Evaluations of Sequences: Testing the Predictions of a Memory-Based Analysis.

Retrospective evaluation (RE) of event sequences is known to be biased in various ways. The present paper presents a series of studies that examined the suggestion that the moments that are the most accessible in memory at the point of RE contribute to these biases. As predicted by this memory-based analysis, Experiment 1 showed that pleasantness ratings of word lists were biased by the presentation position of a negative item and by how easy the negative information was to retrieve.

How to discriminate between computer-aided and computer-hindered decisions: a case study in mammography.

Background: Computer aids can affect decisions in complex ways, potentially even making them worse; common assessment methods may miss these effects. We developed a method for estimating the quality of decisions, as well as how computer aids affect it, and applied it to computer-aided detection (CAD) of cancer, reanalyzing data from a published study where 50 professionals ("readers") interpreted 180 mammograms, both with and without computer support.

Method: We used stepwise regression to estimate how CAD affected the probability of a reader making a correct screening decision on a patient with cancer (sensitivity), thereby taking into account the effects of the difficulty of the cancer (proportion of readers who missed it) and the reader's discriminating ability (Youden's determinant).

Judgments relative to patterns: how temporal sequence patterns affect judgments and memory.

Six experiments studied relative frequency judgment and recall of sequentially presented items drawn from 2 distinct categories (i.e., city and animal).

Self-association mediated by the Ras association 1 domain of AF6 activates the oncogenic potential of MLL-AF6.

MLL is a common target for chromosomal translocations associated with acute leukemia resulting in its fusion with a large variety of nuclear or cytoplasmic proteins that may activate its oncogenic properties by distinct but poorly understood mechanisms. The MLL-AF6 fusion gene represents the most common leukemogenic fusion of mixed lineage leukemia (MLL) to a cytoplasmic partner protein. Here, we identified a highly conserved Ras association (RA1) domain at the amino-terminus of AF6 as the minimal region sufficient for MLL-AF6 mediated myeloid progenitor immortalization in vitro and short latency leukemogenesis in vivo.

Confirmation of the ability to ventilate by facemask before administration of neuromuscular blocker: a non-instrumental piece of information?

Background: Our aim was to determine whether anaesthetists routinely confirm their ability to ventilate a patient's lungs by a facemask before the administration of a neuromuscular blocker and the rationale for this practice.

Methods: An online survey of trainee and non-trainee anaesthetists working in hospitals forming part of the Central London School of Anaesthesia collected 136 complete data sets over a 3 month period.

Results: Seventy-eight of 136 (57%) routinely checked they could ventilate by the facemask ('checkers').

My imagination versus your feelings: can personal affective forecasts be improved by knowing other peoples' emotions?

A proposed remedy for biased affective forecasts is to base judgments on the actual feelings of people (surrogates) currently experiencing the event, rather than using imagination which conjures an inaccurate vision of the future. Gilbert et al. (2009) forced people to use surrogate reports by withholding all event information, resulting in better predictions.

Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.

In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles.

Subjective patterns of randomness and choice: some consequences of collective responses.

Any individual's response intended to be random should be as probable as any other. However, 3 experiments show that many people's independent responses depart from the expected chance distribution. Participants responding to instructions of chance and related concepts favor the available options unequally in a similar way.

What would it be like for me and for you? Judged impact of chronic health conditions on happiness.

Background: People overestimate the impact of health conditions on happiness, putatively because they focus excessively on resulting negative consequences while disregarding the impact of other unchanged aspects of life on happiness. However, typically, inferences about accuracy have been based on a confound of the viewpoint of judgments(Self/Other) with whether the respondent has the condition (Have/Not-have)--an important issue because people often judge themselves as different to others. This study measured Haves' and Not-haves' judged impact on happiness--for self and other--of several chronic health conditions, and whether "defocusing" respondents improved judgment.

Prisoners' positive illusions of their post-release success.

Prisoners' forecasts of post-release success may have implications for how they respond to imprisonment, release, and parole decisions. We examined sentenced US and UK prisoners' forecasts of recidivism, and how well UK prisoners believed they would fare compared to the average other prisoner. In both samples, forecasts of recidivism were unrealistically optimistic when compared to official statistics on recidivism.

Use of computer-aided detection (CAD) tools in screening mammography: a multidisciplinary investigation.

We summarise a set of analyses and studies conducted to assess the effects of the use of a computer-aided detection (CAD) tool in breast screening. We have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines: (a) statistical analyses inspired by reliability modelling in engineering; (b) experimental studies of decisions of mammography experts using the tool, interpreted in the light of human factors psychology; and (c) ethnographic observations of the use of the tool both in trial conditions and in everyday screening practice. Our investigations have shown patterns of human behaviour and effects of computer-based advice that would not have been revealed by a standard clinical trial approach.

The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: two faces of subjective randomness?

The representativeness heuristic has been invoked to explain two opposing expectations--that random sequences will exhibit positive recency (the hot hand fallacy) and that they will exhibit negative recency (the gambler's fallacy). We propose alternative accounts for these two expectations: (1) The hot hand fallacy arises from the experience of characteristic positive recency in serial fluctuations in human performance. (2) The gambler's fallacy results from the experience of characteristic negative recency in sequences of natural events, akin to sampling without replacement.

Binding to nonmethylated CpG DNA is essential for target recognition, transactivation, and myeloid transformation by an MLL oncoprotein.

The MLL gene is a frequent target for leukemia-associated chromosomal translocations that generate dominant-acting chimeric oncoproteins. These invariably contain the amino-terminal 1,400 residues of MLL fused with one of a variety of over 30 distinct nuclear or cytoplasmic partner proteins. Despite the consistent inclusion of the MLL amino-terminal region in leukemia oncoproteins, little is known regarding its molecular contributions to MLL-dependent oncogenesis.

Effects of incorrect computer-aided detection (CAD) output on human decision-making in mammography.

Rationale And Objectives: To investigate the effects of incorrect computer output on the reliability of the decisions of human users. This work followed an independent UK clinical trial that evaluated the impact of computer-aided detection(CAD) in breast screening. The aim was to use data from this trial to feed into probabilistic models (similar to those used in "reliability engineering") which would detect and assess possible ways of improving the human-CAD interaction.