Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons.

Lower Activation in Frontal Cortex and Posterior Cingulate Cortex Observed during Sex Determination Test in Early-Stage Dementia of the Alzheimer Type.

Face-labeling refers to the ability to classify faces into social categories. This plays a critical role in human interaction as it serves to define concepts of socially acceptable interpersonal behavior. The purpose of the current study was to characterize, what, if any, impairments in face-labeling are detectable in participants with early-stage clinically diagnosed dementia of the Alzheimer type (CDDAT) through the use of the sex determination test (SDT).

White Matter Deterioration May Foreshadow Impairment of Emotional Valence Determination in Early-Stage Dementia of the Alzheimer Type.

In Alzheimer Disease (AD), non-verbal skills often remain intact for far longer than verbally mediated processes. Four (1 female, 3 males) participants with early-stage Clinically Diagnosed Dementia of the Alzheimer Type (CDDAT) and eight neurotypicals (NTs; 4 females, 4 males) completed the emotional valence determination test (EVDT) while undergoing BOLD functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We expected CDDAT participants to perform just as well as NTs on the EVDT, and to display increased activity within the bilateral amygdala and right anterior cingulate cortex (r-ACC).

Sequence amplification via cell passaging creates spurious signals of positive adaptation in influenza virus H3N2 hemagglutinin.

Clinical influenza A virus isolates are frequently not sequenced directly. Instead, a majority of these isolates (~70% in 2015) are first subjected to passaging for amplification, most commonly in non-human cell culture. Here, we find that this passaging leaves distinct signals of adaptation, which can confound evolutionary analyses of the viral sequences.

Functional Sites Induce Long-Range Evolutionary Constraints in Enzymes.

Functional residues in proteins tend to be highly conserved over evolutionary time. However, to what extent functional sites impose evolutionary constraints on nearby or even more distant residues is not known. Here, we report pervasive conservation gradients toward catalytic residues in a dataset of 524 distinct enzymes: evolutionary conservation decreases approximately linearly with increasing distance to the nearest catalytic residue in the protein structure.

Time dependence of evolutionary metrics during the 2009 pandemic influenza virus outbreak.

With the expansion of DNA sequencing technology, quantifying evolution in emerging viral outbreaks has become an important tool for scientists and public health officials. Although it is known that the degree of sequence divergence significantly affects the calculation of evolutionary metrics in viral outbreaks, the extent and duration of this effect during an actual outbreak remains unclear. We have analyzed how limited divergence time during an early viral outbreak affects the accuracy of molecular evolutionary metrics.

The utility of protein structure as a predictor of site-wise dN/dS varies widely among HIV-1 proteins.

Protein structure acts as a general constraint on the evolution of viral proteins. One widely recognized structural constraint explaining evolutionary variation among sites is the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of residues in the folded protein. In influenza virus, the distance from functional sites has been found to explain an additional portion of the evolutionary variation in the external antigenic proteins.

Computational and Functional Analysis of the Virus-Receptor Interface Reveals Host Range Trade-Offs in New World Arenaviruses.

Unlabelled: Animal viruses frequently cause zoonotic disease in humans. As these viruses are highly diverse, evaluating the threat that they pose remains a major challenge, and efficient approaches are needed to rapidly predict virus-host compatibility. Here, we develop a combined computational and experimental approach to assess the compatibility of New World arenaviruses, endemic in rodents, with the host TfR1 entry receptors of different potential new host species.

Geometric Constraints Dominate the Antigenic Evolution of Influenza H3N2 Hemagglutinin.

We have carried out a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of human influenza A H3 hemagglutinin evolution. We consider three distinct predictors of evolutionary variation at individual sites: solvent accessibility (as a proxy for protein fold stability and/or conservation), Immune Epitope Database (IEDB) epitope sites (as a proxy for host immune bias), and proximity to the receptor-binding region (as a proxy for one of the functions of hemagglutinin-to bind sialic acid). Individually, these quantities explain approximately 15% of the variation in site-wise dN/dS.

Evolution. Systematic humanization of yeast genes reveals conserved functions and genetic modularity.

To determine whether genes retain ancestral functions over a billion years of evolution and to identify principles of deep evolutionary divergence, we replaced 414 essential yeast genes with their human orthologs, assaying for complementation of lethal growth defects upon loss of the yeast genes. Nearly half (47%) of the yeast genes could be successfully humanized. Sequence similarity and expression only partly predicted replaceability.

Predicting growth conditions from internal metabolic fluxes in an in-silico model of E. coli.

A widely studied problem in systems biology is to predict bacterial phenotype from growth conditions, using mechanistic models such as flux balance analysis (FBA). However, the inverse prediction of growth conditions from phenotype is rarely considered. Here we develop a computational framework to carry out this inverse prediction on a computational model of bacterial metabolism.

Identifying structural variation in haploid microbial genomes from short-read resequencing data using breseq.

Background: Mutations that alter chromosomal structure play critical roles in evolution and disease, including in the origin of new lifestyles and pathogenic traits in microbes. Large-scale rearrangements in genomes are often mediated by recombination events involving new or existing copies of mobile genetic elements, recently duplicated genes, or other repetitive sequences. Most current software programs for predicting structural variation from short-read DNA resequencing data are intended primarily for use on human genomes.

Analyzing machupo virus-receptor binding by molecular dynamics simulations.

In many biological applications, we would like to be able to computationally predict mutational effects on affinity in protein-protein interactions. However, many commonly used methods to predict these effects perform poorly in important test cases. In particular, the effects of multiple mutations, non alanine substitutions, and flexible loops are difficult to predict with available tools and protocols.

Maximum allowed solvent accessibilites of residues in proteins.

The relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of a residue in a protein measures the extent of burial or exposure of that residue in the 3D structure. RSA is frequently used to describe a protein's biophysical or evolutionary properties. To calculate RSA, a residue's solvent accessibility (ASA) needs to be normalized by a suitable reference value for the given amino acid; several normalization scales have previously been proposed.

Alternate splicing of dysferlin C2A confers Ca²⁺-dependent and Ca²⁺-independent binding for membrane repair.

Dysferlin plays a critical role in the Ca²⁺-dependent repair of microlesions that occur in the muscle sarcolemma. Of the seven C2 domains in dysferlin, only C2A is reported to bind both Ca²⁺ and phospholipid, thus acting as a key sensor in membrane repair. Dysferlin C2A exists as two isoforms, the "canonical" C2A and C2A variant 1 (C2Av1).

Computational tests of a thermal cycling strategy to isolate more complex functional nucleic acid motifs from random sequence pools by in vitro selection.

The dual information-function nature of nucleic acids has been exploited in the laboratory to isolate novel receptors and catalysts from random DNA and RNA sequences by cycles of in vitro selection and amplification. This strategy is particularly effective because, unlike polypeptides with random amino acid sequences, nucleic acids with random base sequences are often capable of stably folding into defined three-dimensional structures. However, the pervasive base-pairing potential of nucleic acids is also known to lead to kinetic traps in their folding landscapes.

Integrating sequence variation and protein structure to identify sites under selection.

We present a novel method to identify sites under selection in protein-coding genes. Our method combines the traditional Goldman-Yang model of coding-sequence evolution with the information obtained from the 3D structure of the evolving protein, specifically the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of individual residues. We develop a random-effects likelihood sites model in which rate classes are RSA dependent.

Modeling coding-sequence evolution within the context of residue solvent accessibility.

Background: Protein structure mediates site-specific patterns of sequence divergence. In particular, residues in the core of a protein (solvent-inaccessible residues) tend to be more evolutionarily conserved than residues on the surface (solvent-accessible residues).

Results: Here, we present a model of sequence evolution that explicitly accounts for the relative solvent accessibility of each residue in a protein.