A modeling approach to forecast local demographic trends in metapopulations.

Predicting animal population trajectories into the future has become a central exercise in both applied and fundamental ecology. Because demographic models classically assume population closure, they tend to provide inaccurate predictions when applied locally to interconnected subpopulations that are part of a larger metapopulation. Ideally, one should explicitly model dispersal among subpopulations, but in practice this is prevented by the difficulty of estimating dispersal rates in the wild.

Both movements and breeding performance are affected by individual experience in the Bonelli's eagle .

Movement is a key behaviour to better understand how individuals respond to their environment. Movement behaviours are affected by both extrinsic factors that individuals face, such as weather conditions, and intrinsic factors, such as sex and experience. Because of the energy costs it entails, movement behaviours can have direct consequences on an individual's demographic parameters-and ultimately on population dynamics.

A standardized protocol for assessing the performance of automatic detection systems used in onshore wind power plants to reduce avian mortality.

While wind power plants are an important contribution to the production of renewable energy to limit climate change, collision mortality from turbines is a danger for birds, including many protected species. To try to mitigate collision risks, automatic detection systems (ADSs) can be deployed on wind power plants; these work by detecting incoming birds using a detection/classification process and triggering a specific reaction (scaring off the bird or shutting down the turbine). Nonetheless, bird fatalities still occur at ADS-equipped wind power plants, which raises the question of the performance of these tools.

Airborne imagery does not preclude detectability issues in estimating bird colony size.

Aerial images obtained by drones are increasingly used for ecological research such as wildlife monitoring. Yet detectability issues resulting from animal activity or visibility are rarely considered, although these may lead to biased population size and trend estimates. In this study, we investigated detectability in a census of Malagasy pond heron Ardeola idae colonies on the island of Mayotte.

Low achromatic contrast sensitivity in birds: a common attribute shared by many phylogenetic orders.

Vision is an important sensory modality in birds, which can outperform other vertebrates in some visual abilities. However, sensitivity to achromatic contrasts - the ability to discern luminance difference between two objects or an object and its background - has been shown to be lower in birds compared with other vertebrates. We conducted a comparative study to evaluate the achromatic contrast sensitivity of 32 bird species from 12 orders using the optocollic reflex technique.

A synthesis of recent tools and perspectives in migratory connectivity studies.

Migration movements connect breeding and non-breeding bird populations over the year. Such links, referred to as migratory connectivity, have important implications for migratory population dynamics as they dictate the consequences of localised events for the whole population network. This calls for concerted efforts to understand migration processes for large-scale conservation.

EolPop, a R-shiny tool for quantifying the demographic impact of species exposed to fatalities: Application to bird collisions with wind turbines.

Quantifying the demographic impact of anthropogenic fatalities on animal populations is a key component of wildlife conservation. However, such quantification remains rare in environmental impact assessments (EIA) of large-infrastructure projects, partly because of the complexity of implementing demographic models. Providing user-friendly demographic tools is thus an important step to fill this gap.

Contrasted impacts of weather conditions in species sensitive to both survival and fecundity: A montane bird case study.

There is growing evidence that the Earth's climate is undergoing profound changes that are affecting biodiversity worldwide. This gives rise to the pressing need to develop robust predictions on how species will respond in order to inform conservation strategies and allow managers to adapt mitigation measures accordingly. While predictions have begun to emerge on how species at the extremes of the so-called slow-fast continuum might respond to climate change, empirical studies for species for which all demographic traits contribute relatively equally to population dynamics are lacking.

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France.

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way.

Spatially structured freshwater fish population dynamics at the River Basin District scale: Implication for environmental management and fish conservation.

European Union environmental policy has created a unique regulatory framework to favour aquatic ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation across European countries. Identifying the spatial structure of freshwater fish population dynamics is crucial to define region-specific management and conservation planning. To implement evidence-driven management and conservation decisions at a regional scale we assessed spatial heterogeneity in common freshwater fish population dynamics in France with a focus on trends in River Basin Districts (RBDs).

Can attraction to and competition for high-quality habitats shape breeding propensity?

In many animal species, sexually mature individuals may skip breeding opportunities despite a likely negative impact on fitness. In spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments, habitat selection theory predicts that individuals select habitats where fitness prospects are maximized. Individuals are attracted to high-quality habitat patches where they compete for high-quality breeding sites.

Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater.

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.

Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long-lived reptile populations: Insights from a population viability analysis.

In long-lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1,136 capture-recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates.

Geographical variation in pace-of-life in a long-distance migratory bird: implications for population management.

Life-history theory predicts that animals should develop adaptive trade-offs between survival and reproduction to maximize their fitness. This results in a continuum of life-history strategies among species, ranging from slow to fast paces-of-life. The optimal pace-of-life has been shown to vary within environmental gradients, with a commonly observed pattern of a slow-to-fast continuum from the tropics to the poles.

Determinants of habitat suitability models transferability across geographically disjunct populations: Insights from .

Transferability of habitat suitability models (HSMs), essential to accurately predict outside calibration conditions, has been seldom investigated at intraspecific level. We targeted , a meadow viper from southeastern France and central Italy, to assess determinants of transferability among geographically disjunct populations. We fitted HSMs upon occurrences of the Italian and French populations separately, as well as on the combined occurrence dataset.

Increased microclimatic variation in artificial nests does not create ecological traps for a secondary cavity breeder, the European roller.

Artificial devices are increasingly used in conservation measures to mitigate the disappearance of natural habitats. However, few studies have demonstrated their benefits for the target species, and they may pose a risk of creating ecological traps. This occurs when lower individual fitness is found in artificial habitats that are more attractive than their natural equivalents.

Drivers of amphibian population dynamics and asynchrony at local and regional scales.

Identifying the drivers of population fluctuations in spatially distinct populations remains a significant challenge for ecologists. Whereas regional climatic factors may generate population synchrony (i.e.

Foraging niche shift maintains breeding parameters of a colonial waterbird during range expansion.

Relating the effects of foraging niche variation to reproductive dynamics is critical to understand species response to environmental change. We examined foraging niche variations of the slender-billed gull (), a nomadic colonial waterbird species during its range expansion along the French Mediterranean coast over a 16-year period (1998-2013). We investigated whether range expansion was associated with a change in chick diet, breeding success, and chicks body condition.

Joint estimation of survival and breeding probability in female dolphins and calves with uncertainty in state assignment.

While the population growth rate in long-lived species is highly sensitive to adult survival, reproduction can also significantly drive population dynamics. Reproductive parameters can be challenging to estimate as breeders and nonbreeders may vary in resighting probability and reproductive status may be difficult to assess. We extended capture-recapture (CR) models previously fitted for data on other long-lived marine mammals to estimate demographic parameters while accounting for detection heterogeneity between individuals and state uncertainty regarding reproductive status.

Optimization of capture-recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper.

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture-recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture-recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size.

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird.

Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long-term studies with high sampling frequency.

Amphibian and reptile phenology: the end of the warming hiatus and the influence of the NAO in the North Mediterranean.

In the south of France, the so-called climate hiatus from 1998 to 2013 was associated with a late winter cooling which has affected the phenology of several reptiles and amphibian species, delaying their dates of first appearances in spring. This episode has been related to a period of frequently negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO). The recent increase of this index after this episode marks the end of the "hiatus" and provides an opportunity to verify the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the fauna of the North Mediterranean region.

Physiological impacts of pollution exposure in seabird's progeny nesting in a Mediterranean contaminated area.

Aquatic wildlife is exposed through trophic transfer of hazardous substances to several threats inducing physiological impairments. We aimed at assessing the impact of contamination in one of the hot spots of pollution along Mediterranean coasts, the gulf of Gabes in Tunisia, on Common tern Sterna hirundo, a piscivorous top predator bird. Firstly, we compared the reproductive effort of breeding adults through clutch size distribution in three sites with different levels of pollution.