How do seasonal temperature variations influence interplay between toxic and non-toxic cyanobacterial blooms? Evidence from modeling and experimental data.

Summer cyanobacterial blooms exhibit a dynamic interplay between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, significantly influencing the cyanotoxin levels within a lake. The challenge lies in accurately predicting these toxin concentrations due to the significant temporal fluctuations in the proportions of toxic and non-toxic genotypes. Typically, the toxic genotypes dominate during the early and late summer periods, while the non-toxic variants prevail in mid-summer.