Maternal metabolic profile predicts high or low risk of an autism pregnancy outcome.

Background: Currently there is no test for pregnant mothers that can predict the probability of having a child that will be diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Recent estimates indicate that if a mother has previously had a child with ASD, the risk of having a second child with ASD is ~18.7% (High Risk) whereas the risk of ASD in the general population is ~1.

On the reality of the conjunction fallacy.

Attributing higher "probability" to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q. Legitimate doubts arise about both conditions in classic demonstrations of the conjunction fallacy. We used betting paradigms and unambiguously conjunctive statements to reduce these sources of ambiguity about conjunctive reasoning.