Estimation of parameter of fractional order COVID-19 SIQR epidemic model.

Epidemic model have been broadly used in different forms for studying and forecasting epidemiological processes the spread of dengue, zika virus , HIV, SARS and recently , the 2019-20 corona virus which is an ongoing pandemic of corona virus disease (COVID-19). In the present paper, an inverse problem to find the parameters for the single term (multi term) fractional order system of an outbreak of COVID-19 is considered. In the starting, we propose a numerical method for fractional order corona virus system based on the Gorenflo-Mainardi-Moretti-Paradisi (GMMP) scheme, and then to find the parameters we use GMMP method and the modified hybrid Nelder-Mead Simplex search and particle swarm optimization algorithm.