Why did US urban homicide spike in 2020? A cross-sectional data analysis for the largest American cities.

Working with data about homicide victims and perpetrators from 50 of America's largest cities, we investigate the explanatory power of some familiar explanations for why murder in those cities rose sharply in 2020. The analysis reveals that the distribution of risk by race was essentially the same in 2020 as in 2019. That empirical finding challenges some theories of how racial tensions after the death of George Floyd may have driven homicide increases.

Covid-19 infection risk on US domestic airlines.

Working with recent data and research findings, we estimate the probability that an air traveler in economy class would have contracted Covid-19 on a US domestic jet flight over the nine-month period June 2020 to February 2021. The estimates take account of the rates of confirmed Covid-19 infections in the US, flight duration, fraction of seats occupied, and some demographic differences between US air travelers and US citizens as a whole. Based on point estimates, the risk of contracting Covid-19 in-flight exceeded 1 in 1000 on a fully-loaded two-hour flight at the height of the pandemic over the nine months, but was about 1 in 6000 on a half-full flight when the pandemic was at a low ebb.

All The Same? On a Certain Pattern in Cross-National Death Risk.

This article considers whether a nation that fares relatively well (or badly) on a particular dimension of mortality risk tends also to do so on others. Working with 2016 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we focus on six causes of premature death: transport accidents, other accidents, homicide, early-childhood diseases, and both communicable and noncommunicable diseases beyond early childhood. We consider data from all 26 nations that had populations of at least 50 million in 2016, as well as 15 clusters of smaller nations that are similar in longevity (e.

Has successful terror gone to ground?

This article considers all 87 attacks worldwide against air and rail transport systems that killed at least two passengers over the 30-year period of 1982-2011. The data offer strong and statistically significant evidence that successful acts of terror have "gone to ground" in recent years: attacks against aviation were concentrated early in the three decades studied whereas those against rail were concentrated later. Recent data are used to make estimates of absolute and comparative risk for frequent flyers and subway/rail commuters.

CAPPS II: the foundation of aviation security?

A new computer system is being developed to classify U.S. air travelers by the degree of terrorist threat they might pose.

The Market Response to the Sioux City DC-10 Crash.

The 1989 DC-10 crash at Sioux City, Iowa presented a rare instance in which a potential threat to safety was both (i) intensely publicized over a short period and (ii) also amenable to the unobtrusive measurement of the market reaction it evoked. As such, it allowed a useful case study of the extent and duration of behavior change caused by a frightening event. Using reservations data from travel agencies in five states, this paper estimates the short-term effects of the Sioux City crash on passenger willingness to fly the DC-10.