Malaria treatment for prevention: a modelling study of the impact of routine case management on malaria prevalence and burden.

Background: Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence.

Improving access to care and community health in Haiti with optimized community health worker placement.

The national deployment of polyvalent community health workers (CHWs) is a constitutive part of the strategy initiated by the Ministry of Health to accelerate efforts towards universal health coverage in Haiti. Its implementation requires the planning of future recruitment and deployment activities for which mathematical modelling tools can provide useful support by exploring optimised placement scenarios based on access to care and population distribution. We combined existing gridded estimates of population and travel times with optimisation methods to derive theoretical CHW geographical placement scenarios including constraints on walking time and the number of people served per CHW.

How long is the last mile? Evaluating successful malaria elimination trajectories.

Background: Many national malaria programmes have set goals of eliminating malaria, but realistic timelines for achieving this goal remain unclear. In this investigation, historical data are collated on countries that successfully eliminated malaria to assess how long elimination has taken in the past, and thus to inform feasible timelines for achieving it in the future.

Methods: Annual malaria case series were sought for 56 successful elimination programmes through a non-systematic review.

Malaria surveillance and case management in remote and indigenous communities of Panama: results from a community-based health worker pilot.

Background: Panama is one of eight countries in Mesoamerica that aims to eliminate malaria by 2022. Malaria is concentrated in indigenous and remote regions like Guna Yala, a politically autonomous region where access to health services is limited and cases are predominately detected through intermittent active surveillance. To improve routine access to care, a joint effort was made by Guna Yala authorities and the Ministry of Health to pilot a network of community health workers (CHWs) equipped with rapid diagnostic tests and treatment.

Key factors associated with malaria infection among patients seeking care through the public sector in endemic townships of Ayeyarwady Region, Myanmar.

Background: Ayeyarwady Region in Myanmar has made significant progress towards malaria elimination, with cases decreasing from 12,312 in 2015 to 122 in 2019. As transmission declines, malaria becomes increasingly focalized both in geographic hotspots and among population groups sharing certain risk factors. Developing a thorough profile of high-risk activities associated with malaria infections is critical to ensure intervention approaches are evidence-based.

Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation.

In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections.

Factors associated with the decline of malaria in Myanmar's Ayeyarwady Region between 2013 and 2017.

The burden of malaria in Myanmar has declined rapidly in recent years; cases decreased from 333,871 in 2013 to 85,019 in 2017 (75% decrease). Decline of malaria in the Ayeyarwady Region of Myanmar reflects this trend with an 86% decrease in cases over this period. In this exploratory analysis, quantitative and qualitative information were assessed to explore potential factors responsible for the decline of malaria in Ayeyarwady.

A comparative evaluation of mobile medical APPS (MMAS) for reading and interpreting malaria rapid diagnostic tests.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends confirmatory diagnosis by microscopy or malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) in patients with suspected malaria. In recent years, mobile medical applications (MMAs), which can interpret RDT test results have entered the market. To evaluate the performance of commercially available MMAs, an evaluation was conducted by comparing RDT results read by MMAs to RDT results read by the human eye.

Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology.

Mosquitoes are important vectors for pathogens that infect humans and other vertebrate animals. Some aspects of adult mosquito behavior and mosquito ecology play an important role in determining the capacity of vector populations to transmit pathogens. Here, we re-examine factors affecting the transmission of pathogens by mosquitoes using a new approach.

Assessing the role of the private sector in surveillance for malaria elimination in Haiti and the Dominican Republic: a qualitative study.

Background: Haiti and the Dominican Republic (DR) are targeting malaria elimination by 2022. The private health sector has been relatively unengaged in these efforts, even though most primary health care in Haiti is provided by non-state actors, and many people use traditional medicine. Data on private health sector participation in malaria elimination efforts are lacking, as are data on care-seeking behaviour of patients in the private health sector.

Strengthening surveillance systems for malaria elimination: a global landscaping of system performance, 2015-2017.

Background: Surveillance is a core component of an effective system to support malaria elimination. Poor surveillance data will prevent countries from monitoring progress towards elimination and targeting interventions to the last remaining at-risk places. An evaluation of the performance of surveillance systems in 16 countries was conducted to identify key gaps which could be addressed to build effective systems for malaria elimination.

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention packaged with malnutrition prevention in northern Nigeria: A pragmatic trial (SMAMP study) with nested case-control.

Integrating seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), recommended by the WHO since 2012 to prevent malaria infection, with nutrition interventions may improve health outcomes and operational efficiencies. This study assessed the effects of co-packaging interventions on distribution coverage, nutrition, and clinical malaria outcomes in northern Nigeria. From August to November 2014, community volunteers delivered sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine (SP-AQ) door-to-door each month to approximately 7,000 children aged 6-24 months in seven wards of Madobi, Kano State, Nigeria.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions.

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle.

Travel patterns and demographic characteristics of malaria cases in Swaziland, 2010-2014.

Background: As Swaziland progresses towards national malaria elimination, the importation of parasites into receptive areas becomes increasingly important. Imported infections have the potential to instigate local transmission and sustain local parasite reservoirs.

Methods: Travel histories from Swaziland's routine surveillance data from January 2010 to June 2014 were extracted and analysed.

Low-Quality Housing Is Associated With Increased Risk of Malaria Infection: A National Population-Based Study From the Low Transmission Setting of Swaziland.

Background: Low-quality housing may confer risk of malaria infection, but evidence in low transmission settings is limited.

Methods: To examine the relationship between individual level housing quality and locally acquired infection in children and adults, a population-based cross-sectional analysis was performed using existing surveillance data from the low transmission setting of Swaziland. From 2012 to 2015, cases were identified through standard diagnostics in health facilities and by loop-mediated isothermal amplification in active surveillance, with uninfected subjects being household members and neighbors.

Expanding access to parasite-based malaria diagnosis through retail drug shops in Tanzania: evidence from a randomized trial and implications for treatment.

Background: Tanzania has seen a reduction in the fraction of fevers caused by malaria, likely due in part to scale-up of control measures. While national guidelines require parasite-based diagnosis prior to treatment, it is estimated that more than half of suspected malaria treatment-seeking in Tanzania initiates in the private retail sector, where diagnosis by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy is illegal. This pilot study investigated whether the introduction of RDTs into Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) under realistic market conditions would improve case management practices.

Malaria vector research and control in Haiti: a systematic review.

Background: Haiti has a set a target of eliminating malaria by 2020. However, information on malaria vector research in Haiti is not well known. This paper presents results from a systematic review of the literature on malaria vector research, bionomics and control in Haiti.

Recent TB transmission, clustering and predictors of large clusters in London, 2010-2012: results from first 3 years of universal MIRU-VNTR strain typing.

Background: The incidence of TB has doubled in the last 20 years in London. A better understanding of risk groups for recent transmission is required to effectively target interventions. We investigated the molecular epidemiological characteristics of TB cases to estimate the proportion of cases due to recent transmission, and identify predictors for belonging to a cluster.

Advances in mapping malaria for elimination: fine resolution modelling of Plasmodium falciparum incidence.

The long-term goal of the global effort to tackle malaria is national and regional elimination and eventually eradication. Fine scale multi-temporal mapping in low malaria transmission settings remains a challenge and the World Health Organisation propose use of surveillance in elimination settings. Here, we show how malaria incidence can be modelled at a fine spatial and temporal resolution from health facility data to help focus surveillance and control to population not attending health facilities.

Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination.

Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections . In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk.

Fine-scale malaria risk mapping from routine aggregated case data.

Background: Mapping malaria risk is an integral component of efficient resource allocation. Routine health facility data are convenient to collect, but without information on the locations at which transmission occurred, their utility for predicting variation in risk at a sub-catchment level is presently unclear.

Methods: Using routinely collected health facility level case data in Swaziland between 2011-2013, and fine scale environmental and ecological variables, this study explores the use of a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework for downscaling risk maps from health facility catchment level to a fine scale (1 km x 1 km).