Uncertainty Evaluation of a Gas Turbine Model Based on a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model and Monte Carlo Dropout.

Gas turbines are thermoelectric plants with various applications, such as large-scale electricity production, petrochemical industry, and steam generation. In order to optimize the operation of a gas turbine, it is necessary to develop system identification models that allow for the development of studies and analyses to increase the system's reliability. Current strategies for modeling complex and non-linear systems can be based on artificial intelligence techniques, using autoregressive neural networks of the NARX and LSTM type.

System Identification Methodology of a Gas Turbine Based on Artificial Recurrent Neural Networks.

The application of identification techniques using artificial intelligence to the gas turbine (GT), whose nonlinear dynamic behavior is difficult to describe through differential equations and the laws of physics, has begun to gain importance for a little more than a decade. NARX (Nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs) is one of the models used to identify GT because it provides good results. However, existing studies need to show a systematic method to generate robust NARX models that can identify a GT with satisfactory accuracy.