Rare Event-Triggered Transitions in Aerodynamic Bifurcation.

The transitions between two states of a bistable system are investigated experimentally and analyzed in the framework of rare-event statistics. Considering a disk pendulum swept by a flow in a wind tunnel, bistability between two aerodynamic branches is observed, with spontaneous transitions from one branch to the other. The waiting times before spontaneous transition are distributed following a double exponential as a function of the control parameter, spanning 4 orders of magnitude in time, for both transitions.