Publications by authors named "Aquila Flower"

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to understand environmental controls on species' ranges and to forecast species range shifts in response to climatic changes. The quality of input data is crucial determinant of the model's accuracy. While museum records can be useful sources of presence data for many species, they do not always include accurate geographic coordinates.

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Insect outbreaks often occur synchronously across large spatial scales, but the long-term temporal stability of the phenomenon and the mechanisms behind it are not well understood. In this study, I use a widespread lepidopteran defoliator native to western North America-the western spruce budworm-as a case study to explore patterns of and potential causes for synchronous population fluctuations. Analyses of synchrony are typically severely limited by the short historical records available for many species.

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Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics.

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