The oil price-macroeconomy dependence.

This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and real output in the United States in the context of a Markov regime switching, identified, structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR model with copulas. We use the copula method to investigate the nonlinear dependence structure, as well as (upper and lower) tail dependence, between the price of oil and real output growth, and Markov regime switching to account for changing oil price dynamics over the sample period. We find an asymmetric negative dependence structure between oil price and output growth shocks and that oil price uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on real output growth.

Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates: an application of recurrence quantification analysis.

We construct recurrence plots (RPs) and conduct recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability (CFS) Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States. In this study, we use the latest vintage of Divisia aggregates, maintained within CFS. We use monthly data, from January 1967 to December 2020, which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

Risk, uncertainty, and leverage.

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage.