Augmenting Household Expenditure Forecasts with Online Employee-generated Company Reviews.

We assess the ability of online employee-generated content in predicting consumption expenditures. In so doing, we aggregate millions of employee expectations for the next six-month business outlook of their employer and build an employee sentiment index. We test whether forward-looking employee sentiment can contribute to baseline models when forecasting aggregate consumption in the United States and compare its performance to well-established, survey-based consumer sentiment indexes.

International trade resilience and the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Covid-19 pandemic represents a low-probability, high-impact systemic risk that has severely disrupted international trade, reshaping the patterns of globalization. Drawing from the concept of supply chain resilience, which involves both the ability of a system to withstand an impact () and recover from it (), we investigate country-level trade resilience during the 1st wave of the pandemic. By employing Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we identify configurations of country-level factors, i.