Seasonal forecasting of East African short rains.

The variability of East African short rains (October-December) has profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts on the region, making accurate seasonal rainfall predictions essential. We evaluated the predictability of East African short rains using model ensembles from the multi-system seasonal retrospective forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We assess the prediction skill for 1- to 5-month lead times using forecasts initialized in September for each year from 1993 to 2016.

Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world's centers of active coronavirus cases.

The typhoon-induced drying of the Maritime Continent.

The Maritime Continent plays a role in the global circulation pattern, due to the energy released by convective condensation over the region which influences the global atmospheric circulation. We demonstrate that tropical cyclones contribute to drying the Maritime Continent atmosphere, influencing the definition of the onset of the dry season. The process was investigated using observational data and reanalysis.

Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of great potential societal significance. The ocean temperature, both in terms of North Atlantic/tropical averages and upper ocean heat content, is demonstrated to be a significant predictor. To investigate the relationship between the thermal state of the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), we use observed 1980-2015 TC records and a 1/4° resolution global ocean reanalysis.

Observed shift towards earlier spring discharge in the main Alpine rivers.

In this study, we analyse the observed long-term discharge time-series of the Rhine, the Danube, the Rhone and the Po rivers. These rivers are characterised by different seasonal cycles reflecting the diverse climates and morphologies of the Alpine basins. However, despite the intensive and varied water management adopted in the four basins, we found common features in the trend and low-frequency variability of the spring discharge timings.

The path integral formulation of climate dynamics.

The chaotic nature of the atmospheric dynamics has stimulated the applications of methods and ideas derived from statistical dynamics. For instance, ensemble systems are used to make weather predictions recently extensive, which are designed to sample the phase space around the initial condition. Such an approach has been shown to improve substantially the usefulness of the forecasts since it allows forecasters to issue probabilistic forecasts.

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level.