Early trends in ECMO mortality during the first quarters of 2019 and 2020: Could we have predicted the onset of the pandemic?

Objective: To compare mortality trends in patients requiring Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) support between the first quarters of 2019 and 2020 and determine whether these trends might have predicted the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS)-Cov-2 pandemic in the United States.

Methods: We analyzed 5% Medicare claims data at aggregate, state, hospital, and encounter levels using MS-DRG (Medicare Severity-Diagnosis Related Group) codes for ECMO, combining state-level data with national census data. Necessity and sufficiency relations associated with change in mortality between the 2 years were modeled using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA).