A prognostic model for predicting functional impairment in youth mental health services.

Background: Functional impairment is a major concern among those presenting to youth mental health services and can have a profound impact on long-term outcomes. Early recognition and prevention for those at risk of functional impairment is essential to guide effective youth mental health care. Yet, identifying those at risk is challenging and impacts the appropriate allocation of indicated prevention and early intervention strategies.

The influence of economic policies on social environments and mental health.

Despite increased advocacy and investments in mental health systems globally, there has been limited progress in reducing mental disorder prevalence. In this paper, we argue that meaningful advancements in population mental health necessitate addressing the fundamental sources of shared distress. Using a systems perspective, economic structures and policies are identified as the potential cause of causes of mental ill-health.

Navigating a stable transition to the age of intelligence: A mental wealth perspective.

In the grand narrative of technological evolution, we are transitioning from the "Age of Information" to the "Age of Intelligence." Rapid advancements in generative artificial intelligence (AI) are set to reshape society, revolutionize industries, and change the nature of work, challenging our traditional understanding of the dynamics of the economy and its relationship with human productivity and societal prosperity. As we brace for this transformative shift, promising advancements in healthcare, education, productivity, and more, there are concerns of large-scale job loss, mental health repercussions, and risks to social stability and democracy.

Developing a Decision Aid for Clinical Obesity Services in the Real World: the DACOS Nationwide Pilot Study.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a decision aid tool using "real-world" data within the Australian health system to predict weight loss after bariatric surgery and non-surgical care.

Materials And Methods: We analyzed patient record data (aged 16+years) from initial review between 2015 and 2020 with 6-month (n=219) and 9-/12-month (n=153) follow-ups at eight clinical obesity services. Primary outcome was percentage total weight loss (%TWL) at 6 months and 9/12 months.

Patterns of emergency department presentations for a youth mental health cohort: data-linkage cohort study.

Background: Primary youth mental health services in Australia have increased access to care for young people, yet the longer-term outcomes and utilisation of other health services among these populations is unclear.

Aims: To describe the emergency department presentation patterns of a help-seeking youth mental health cohort.

Method: Data linkage was performed to extract Emergency Department Data Collection registry data (i.

The temporal dependencies between social, emotional and physical health factors in young people receiving mental healthcare: a dynamic Bayesian network analysis.

Aims: The needs of young people attending mental healthcare can be complex and often span multiple domains (e.g., social, emotional and physical health factors).

Bi-stability and critical transitions in mental health care systems: a model-based analysis.

Background: Delayed initiation and early discontinuation of treatment due to limited availability and accessibility of services may often result in people with mild or moderate mental disorders developing more severe disorders, leading to an increase in demand for specialised care that would be expected to further restrict service availability and accessibility (due to increased waiting times, higher out-of-pocket costs, etc.).

Methods: We developed a simple system dynamics model of the interaction of specialised services capacity and disease progression to examine the impact of service availability and accessibility on the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems.

Clinical staging and the differential risks for clinical and functional outcomes in young people presenting for youth mental health care.

Background: Clinical staging proposes that youth-onset mental disorders develop progressively, and that active treatment of earlier stages should prevent progression to more severe disorders. This retrospective cohort study examined the longitudinal relationships between clinical stages and multiple clinical and functional outcomes within the first 12 months of care.

Methods: Demographic and clinical information of 2901 young people who accessed mental health care at age 12-25 years was collected at predetermined timepoints (baseline, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months).

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing "human capital", "brain capital", "mental capital", and "wellbeing" as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities.

Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of populations and highlighted the limitations of mental health care systems. As the trajectory of the pandemic and the economic recovery are still uncertain, decision tools are needed to help evaluate the best interventions to improve mental health outcomes. We developed a system dynamics model that captures causal relationships among population, demographics, post-secondary education, health services, COVID-19 impact, and mental health outcomes.

Using Digital Technologies to Facilitate Care Coordination Between Youth Mental Health Services: A Guide for Implementation.

Enhanced care coordination is essential to improving access to and navigation between youth mental health services. By facilitating better communication and coordination within and between youth mental health services, the goal is to guide young people quickly to the level of care they need and reduce instances of those receiving inappropriate care (too much or too little), or no care at all. Yet, it is often unclear how this goal can be achieved in a scalable way in local regions.

'Turning the tide' on hyperglycemia in pregnancy: insights from multiscale dynamic simulation modeling.

Introduction: Hyperglycemia in pregnancy (HIP, including gestational diabetes and pre-existing type 1 and type 2 diabetes) is increasing, with associated risks to the health of women and their babies. Strategies to manage and prevent this condition are contested. Dynamic simulation models (DSM) can test policy and program scenarios before implementation in the real world.

Policy options for endgame planning in tobacco control: a simulation modelling study.

Objective: To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders.

Methods: Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037).

Findings: Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.

Resolving the paradox of increased mental health expenditure and stable prevalence.

A doubling of Australian expenditure on mental health services over two decades, inflation-adjusted, has reduced prevalence of neither psychological distress nor mental disorders. Low rates of help-seeking, and inadequate and inequitable delivery of effective care may explain this partially, but not fully. Focusing on depressive disorders, drawing initially on ideas from the work of philosopher and socio-cultural critic Ivan Illich, we use evidence-based medicine statistics and simulation modelling approaches to develop testable hypotheses as to how iatrogenic influences on the course of depression may help explain this seeming paradox.

Impacts of licensed premises trading hour policies on alcohol-related harms.

Background And Aim: Evaluations of alcohol policy changes demonstrate that restriction of trading hours of both 'on'- and 'off'-licence venues can be an effective means of reducing rates of alcohol-related harm. Despite this, the effects of different trading hour policy options over time, accounting for different contexts and demographic characteristics, and the common co-occurrence of other harm reduction strategies in trading hour policy initiatives, are difficult to estimate. The aim of this study was to use dynamic simulation modelling to compare estimated impacts over time of a range of trading hour policy options on various indicators of acute alcohol-related harm.