Dynamic modelling of improved diagnostic testing for drug-resistant tuberculosis in high burden settings.

Background: Limited diagnostic testing for drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) may lead to high rates of misdiagnosis and undertreatment. Current diagnostic tests focus only on detection of rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB). This study aims to determine the impact of improved diagnostic testing for a wider range of drug resistance on DR-TB outcomes in high-burden TB settings, using the Philippines and Thailand as case studies.

Substance Use among Youth Presenting to the Pediatric Emergency Department.

Objective: Our primary objective was to determine the frequency and type of substance use in youth presenting to our pediatric ED (PED). Our secondary objective was to identify characteristics associated with higher-risk substance use.

Methods: We conducted a tablet-based, anonymous, self-administered screening for substance use using a modified version of the Screening to Brief Intervention (S2BI) tool among a convenience sample of 383 patients 12-21 years presenting to an urban, academic PED from February to July 2023.

Projecting the Likely Impact of COVID-19 Infections on the Prevalence of Dementia in the United States.

Background: The association between COVID-19 infection and the onset of dementia among adults 65 years and older has the potential to increase the burden of dementia worldwide significantly. Our research, which focuses on understanding the likely increase in the burden of dementia due to COVID-19 infection in the USA, has crucial public policy implications. By providing these insights, we aim to empower policymakers, healthcare professionals, researchers, and public health officials to make informed decisions and plan for the future.

Enablers and barriers to implementing cholera interventions in Nigeria: a community-based system dynamics approach.

Nigeria accounts for a substantial cholera burden globally, particularly in its northeast region, where insurgency is persistent and widespread. We used participatory group model building workshops to explore enablers and barriers to implementing known cholera interventions, including water, sanitation and hygiene, surveillance and laboratory, case management, community engagement, oral cholera vaccine, and leadership and coordination, as well as exploring leverage points for interventions and collaboration. The study engaged key cholera stakeholders in the northeastern States of Adamawa and Bauchi, as well as national stakeholders in Abuja.

At what risk? A research note on interviewer burden.

Background: We report on our methodological experiences during an investigation of how institutional racism functions in healthcare. We found tension between balancing methodological rigor with the unanticipated consequence of interviewer burden.

Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients.

Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model.

Objectives: With the aging United Kingdom population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based projection of the adult population in the United Kingdom with dental caries and periodontal diseases.

Group Model Building on causes and interventions for falls in Singapore: insights from a systems thinking approach.

Background: Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults.

Methods: A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore.

Systems modelling as an approach for eliciting the mechanisms for hip fracture recovery among older adults in a participatory stakeholder engagement setting.

Introduction: Due to an aging population, the rising prevalence and incidence of hip fractures and the associated health and economic burden present a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Studies have shown that a complex interplay of physiological, psychological, and social factors often affects the recovery trajectories of older adults with hip fractures, often complicating the recovery process.

Methods: This research aims to actively engage stakeholders (including doctors, physiotherapists, hip fracture patients, and caregivers) using the systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to elicit the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery, incorporating a feedback perspective to inform system-wide interventions.

Preferences for Enhanced Primary Care Services Among Older Individuals and Primary Care Physicians.

Objective: We aimed to identify the factors that are most important for community-dwelling older individuals (i.e., users) and primary care (PC) providers to enhance PC services.

A Causal View of the Role and Potential Limitations of Capitation in Promoting Whole Health System Performance.

For several decades, health systems in developed countries have faced rapidly rising healthcare costs without concomitant improvements in health outcomes. Fee for service (FFS) reimbursement mechanisms (RMs), where health systems are paid based on volume, contribute to this trend. In Singapore, the public health service is trying to curb rising healthcare costs by transitioning from a volume-based RM to a capitated payment for a population within a geographical catchment area.

Effects of COVID-19 on coastal livelihoods in the central region of Ghana.

The COVID-19 outbreak effects and related state responses, especially mobility restriction interventions, contributed to disruption in livelihoods in the coastal communities in Ghana. This paper uses an ethnographic approach to analyse the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and coping strategies adopted by small-scale fishers, fish traders and processors. We argued that focusing solely on the livelihoods of formal sector workers is problematic because it fails to consider the dynamics of informal coastal workers.

Projecting the chronic disease burden among the adult population in the United States using a multi-state population model.

Introduction: As the United States population ages, the adult population with chronic diseases is expected to increase. Exploring credible, evidence-based projections of the future burden of chronic diseases is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of established and emerging interventions on the incidence and prevalence of chronic disease. Projections of chronic disease often involve cross-sectional data that fails to account for the transition of individuals across different health states.

Developing a toolkit for implementing evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and diabetes in Cambodia: a descriptive case study.

Background: In Cambodia, economic development accompanied by health reforms has led to a rapidly ageing population and an increasing incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases. National strategic plans recognize primary care health centres as the focal points of care for treating and managing chronic conditions, particularly hypertension and type 2 diabetes. However, health centres have limited experience in providing such services.

Socio-cultural factors influencing adolescent pregnancy in Ghana: a scoping review.

Background: Adolescent pregnancy is a public health challenge that has well-defined causes, associated health risks, and social and economic consequences for adolescent, their families, communities, and society. The purpose of this scoping review is to summarize studies published on socio-cultural determinants of adolescent pregnancy in Ghana.

Methods: Search for records was done in four major databases, including PubMed CENTRAL, Science Direct and JSTOR.

Developing integration among stakeholders in the primary care networks of Singapore: a qualitative study.

Background: Integrating healthcare services across and between the different health system levels can be achieved in a few ways; however, examining the social side of integration is essential and challenging. This paper explores the concept of integration perceived by general practitioners (GPs) and primary care network (PCN) representatives from the regional health systems (RHS) in a GP-RHS PCN and their perceived partnership success.

Methods: In this study, we explored three GP-RHS PCNs in Singapore.

An Agile Systems Modeling Framework for Bed Resource Planning During COVID-19 Pandemic in Singapore.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on health systems globally. The sufficiency of hospitals' bed resource is a cornerstone for access to care which can significantly impact the public health outcomes.

Objective: We describe the development of a dynamic simulation framework to support agile resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a tertiary care public hospital in Singapore: resources and economic costs.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted hospitals to respond with stringent measures. Accurate estimates of costs and resources used in outbreaks can guide evaluations of responses. We report on the financial expenditure associated with COVID-19, the bed-days used for COVID-19 patients and hospital services displaced due to COVID-19 in a Singapore tertiary hospital.

Validation and application of a needs-based segmentation tool for cross-country comparisons.

Objective: To compare countries' health care needs by segmenting populations into a set of needs-based health states.

Data Sources: We used seven waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) panel survey data.

Study Design: We developed the Cross-Country Simple Segmentation Tool (CCSST), a validated clinician-administered instrument for categorizing older individuals by distinct, homogeneous health and related social service needs.

Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) to identify optimal sequences of telemedicine interventions for improving initiation of insulin therapy: A simulation study.

Background: To examine the value of a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) design compared to a conventional randomized control trial (RCT) for telemedicine strategies to support titration of insulin therapy for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients new to insulin.

Methods: Microsimulation models were created in R using a synthetic sample based on primary data from 63 subjects enrolled in a pilot study of a smartphone application (App), Diabetes Pal compared to a nurse-based telemedicine strategy (Nurse). For comparability, the SMART and an RCT design were constructed to allow comparison of four (embedded) adaptive interventions (AIs).

Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model.

Background: Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability.