Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019.

Introduction: Internationally comparable estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence can illuminate disparities in sexual and reproductive health and autonomy. Country-specific estimates are essential to enable international comparison, and to inform country-level policy and programming.

Methods: We developed a Bayesian model which jointly estimated unintended pregnancy and abortion rates using information on contraceptive needs and use, contraceptive method mix, birth rates, the proportions of births from unintended pregnancies and abortion incidence data.

Does the Impact of Motherhood on Women's Employment and Wages Differ for Women Who Plan Their Transition Into Motherhood?

Women's ability to control their fertility through contraception and abortion has been shown to contribute to improvements in education and employment. At the same time, their employment and wages decline substantially when they transition to motherhood. About one-third of births are unintended, and it is unknown whether the impact of motherhood on employment, hours, and wages is smaller for women who planned their transition into motherhood compared with those who did not.

Unintended pregnancy and abortion by income, region, and the legal status of abortion: estimates from a comprehensive model for 1990-2019.

Background: Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates document trends in sexual and reproductive health and autonomy. These estimates inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for measuring and monitoring trends in unintended pregnancy and abortion.

Pregnancies, abortions, and pregnancy intentions: a protocol for modeling and reporting global, regional and country estimates.

Background: Estimates of pregnancies, abortions and pregnancy intentions can help assess how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations. Abortion incidence estimates are also a necessary foundation for research on the safety of abortions performed and the consequences of unsafe abortion. Furthermore, periodic estimates of these indicators are needed to help inform policy and programmes.

Global, regional, and subregional trends in unintended pregnancy and its outcomes from 1990 to 2014: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model.

Background: Estimates of pregnancy incidence by intention status and outcome indicate how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations, and can be used to monitor the impact of family-planning programmes. We estimate global, regional, and subregional pregnancy rates by intention status and outcome for 1990-2014.

Methods: We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the unintended pregnancy rate is a function of the distribution of women across subgroups defined by marital status and contraceptive need and use, and of the risk of unintended pregnancy in each subgroup.

Global, regional, and subregional classification of abortions by safety, 2010-14: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model.

Background: Global estimates of unsafe abortions have been produced for 1995, 2003, and 2008. However, reconceptualisation of the framework and methods for estimating abortion safety is needed owing to the increased availability of simple methods for safe abortion (eg, medical abortion), the increasingly widespread use of misoprostol outside formal health systems in contexts where abortion is legally restricted, and the need to account for the multiple factors that affect abortion safety.

Methods: We used all available empirical data on abortion methods, providers, and settings, and factors affecting safety as covariates within a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the global, regional, and subregional distributions of abortion by safety categories.

Abortion incidence between 1990 and 2014: global, regional, and subregional levels and trends.

Background: Information about the incidence of induced abortion is needed to motivate and inform efforts to help women avoid unintended pregnancies and to monitor progress toward that end. We estimate subregional, regional, and global levels and trends in abortion incidence for 1990 to 2014, and abortion rates in subgroups of women. We use the results to estimate the proportion of pregnancies that end in abortion and examine whether abortion rates vary in countries grouped by the legal status of abortion.