Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases.

Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of -15°C and above.

Strategies for the Global Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants: An Argument for the Use of Guerrilla Rather Than Trench Warfare.

Many historical disease eradication campaigns have been characterized by large-scale mobilization and long-term campaigns of mass vaccination. As the duration of a program increases, the total cost also increases, but the effectiveness and sustainability decrease, sometimes resulting in premature loss of stakeholder support, field team fatigue, and failure or major set-backs. In contrast to this trench warfare approach, this paper proposes an eradication strategy modeled on guerrilla tactics: use exceptionally good, locally relevant and timely intelligence; strike rapidly and effectively in small areas; achieve your goals; and keep moving.

Methodology and preliminary results of a systematic literature review of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis.

A systematic review was conducted to identify studies with data for statistical meta-analyses of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Members of a working group (WG) developed and tested search criteria and developed a standardised two-stage review process, to identify primary studies with numerator and denominator data for test performance and an agreed range of covariate data. No limits were applied to year, language, region or type of test in initial searches of electronic databases.

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland.

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors.

Expert consultation on risk factors for introduction of infectious pathogens into fish farms.

An expert consultation was conducted to provide quantitative parameters required to inform risk-based surveillance of aquaculture holdings for selected infectious hazards. The hazards were four fish diseases endemic in some or several European countries: infectious salmon anaemia (ISA), viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN), and koi herpes virus disease (KHD). Experts were asked to provide estimates for the relative importance of 5 risk themes for the hazard to be introduced into and infect susceptible fish at the destination.

Defining output-based standards to achieve and maintain tuberculosis freedom in farmed deer, with reference to member states of the European Union.

Within the European Union (EU), detailed legislation has been developed for cattle, but not deer, to minimise disease risks associated with trade in animals and animal products. This legislation is expressed as input-based standards, providing a detailed outline of the activity required (for example, testing of animals and application of defined control measures), on the expectation that an adequate output (for example, confidence in freedom) will be achieved. Input-based standards are at odds with the increasing shift towards output-based standards, particularly in OIE rules governing international trade.

Iodine status of Tasmanians following voluntary fortification of bread with iodine.

Objective: To describe changes in the iodine status of Tasmanians following voluntary fortification of bread with iodine in October 2001.

Design And Setting: Post-intervention, cross-sectional urinary iodine surveys of Tasmanian schoolchildren aged 8-11 years were used to assess population iodine status. Participants were selected using a one-stage cluster sampling method.