Geomagnetic secular variation forecast using the NASA GEMS ensemble Kalman filter: A candidate SV model for IGRF-13.

Abstract: We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020-2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including (1590-1960), CM4 (1961-2000) and CM6 (2001-2019).

Chaotic advection in a 2-D mixed convection flow.

Two-dimensional numerical simulations of particle advection in a channel flow with spatially periodic heating have been carried out. The velocity field is found to be periodic above a critical Rayleigh number of around 18 000 and a Reynolds number of 10. Particle motion becomes chaotic in the lower half plane almost immediately after this critical value is surpassed, as characterized by the power spectral density and Poincare section of the flow.