Assessment of the probability of introduction of into the European Union with import of cut roses.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment to assess whether the import of cut roses provides a pathway for the introduction of (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) into the EU. The assessment was limited to the entry and establishment steps. A pathway model was used to assess how many individuals would survive and emerge as adults from commercial or household wastes in an EU NUTS2 region climatically suitable in a specific season.

Nesting Behavior, Phenology, and Bionomics of the High Andean Leaf-Cutter Bee Megachile (Cressoniella) amparo.

Megachile amparo (González, Revista Colombiana De Entomología 32(1):93-96, 2006) is the only high Andean leaf-cutter bee reported in Colombia and is possibly endemic to the Colombian Andes. Although it is frequently observed, even in urban areas, its biology and ecology remain unknown. The present study aimed to describe detailed aspects of its bionomy.

Invasive potential of tropical fruit flies in temperate regions under climate change.

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.

The coffee agroecosystem: bio-economic analysis of coffee berry borer control (Hypothenemus hampei).

Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB.

Small world in the real world: Long distance dispersal governs epidemic dynamics in agricultural landscapes.

Outbreaks of a plant disease in a landscape can be meaningfully modelled using networks with nodes representing individual crop-fields, and edges representing potential infection pathways between them. Their spatial structure, which resembles that of a regular lattice, makes such networks fairly robust against epidemics. Yet, it is well-known how the addition of a few shortcuts can turn robust regular lattices into vulnerable 'small world' networks.

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather.

Eradication of invasive species: why the biology matters.

Published bi- and tri-trophic physiologically based demographic system models having similar sub components are used to assess prospectively the geographic distributions and relative abundance (a measure of invasiveness) of six invasive herbivorous insect species across the United States and Mexico. The plant hosts and insect species included in the study are: 1) cotton/pink bollworm, 2) a fruit tree host/Mediterranean fruit fly, 3) olive/olive fly, 4) a perennial host/light brown apple moth, 5) grapevine/glassy-winged sharpshooter and its two egg parasitoids, and 6) grapevine/European grapevine moth. All of these species are currently or have been targets for eradication.

Geographic distribution and relative abundance of the invasive glassy-winged sharpshooter: effects of temperature and egg parasitoids.

The capacity to predict the geographic distribution and relative abundance of invasive species is pivotal to developing policy for eradication or control and management. Commonly used methods fall under the ambit of ecological niche models (ENMs). These methods were reviewed and shortcomings identified.