A successful prediction of the record CO rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño.

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO rise.

Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity.

Climate change is shifting the phenological cycles of plants, thereby altering the functioning of ecosystems, which in turn induces feedbacks to the climate system. In northern (north of 30° N) ecosystems, warmer springs lead generally to an earlier onset of the growing season and increased ecosystem productivity early in the season. In situ and regional studies also provide evidence for lagged effects of spring warmth on plant productivity during the subsequent summer and autumn.

Deep instability of deforested tropical peatlands revealed by fluvial organic carbon fluxes.

Tropical peatlands contain one of the largest pools of terrestrial organic carbon, amounting to about 89,000 teragrams (1 Tg is a billion kilograms). Approximately 65 per cent of this carbon store is in Indonesia, where extensive anthropogenic degradation in the form of deforestation, drainage and fire are converting it into a globally significant source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we quantify the annual export of fluvial organic carbon from both intact peat swamp forest and peat swamp forest subject to past anthropogenic disturbance.