Exploiting the Capabilities of Bayesian Networks for Engineering Risk Assessment: Causal Reasoning through Interventions.

In the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have been widely used in engineering risk assessment due to the benefits that they provide over other methods. Among these, the most significant is the ability to model systems, causal factors, and their dependencies in a probabilistic manner. This capability has enabled the community to do causal reasoning through associations, which answers questions such as: "How does new evidence about the occurrence of event change my belief about the occurrence of event ?" Associative reasoning has helped risk analysts to identify relevant risk-contributing factors and perform scenario analysis by evidence propagation.