Bayesian analysis of the species-specific lengthening of the growing season in two European countries and the influence of an insect pest.

A recent lengthening of the growing season in mid and higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere is reported as a clear indicator for climate change impacts. Using data from Germany (1951-2003) and Slovenia (1961-2004), we study whether changes in the start, end, and length of the growing season differ among four deciduous broad-leaved tree species and countries, how the changes are related to temperature changes, and what might be the confounding effects of an insect attack. The functional behaviour of the phenological and climatological time series and their trends are not analysed by linear regression, but by a new Bayesian approach taking into account different models for the functional description (one change-point, linear, constant models).