Publications by authors named "Andreia Cassia Escarso"
Prevalence of virological and serological markers of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population of Ribeirão Preto, Southeast Brazil: an epidemiological survey.
Edson Zangiacomi Martinez Afonso Dinis Costa Passos Amaury Lelis Dal Fabbro Anderson Soares da Silva Andreia Cássia Escarso
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop
July 2021
Article Synopsis
- This study assessed the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil, through a household survey conducted in two phases with a total of 1,355 participants.
- During the first phase, RT-PCR tests showed a 0.14% positivity rate, while serological tests revealed 1.27%, increasing to 2.79% in the second phase, with higher infection rates found in larger households.
- The cumulative infection rate by mid-June 2020 was estimated at 2.37%, equivalent to around 16,670 people, with an infection fatality rate of 0.41%, indicating that a significant portion of cases went unreported.
Introduction: We evaluated the performance of Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) and Holt's models to forecast the weekly COVID-19 reported cases in six units of a large hospital.
Methods: Cases reported from epidemiologic weeks (EW) 12-37 were selected as the training period, and from EW 38-41 as the test period.
Results: The models performed well in forecasting cases within one or two weeks following the end of the time-series, but forecasts for a more distant period were inaccurate.