Aggregate fluctuations in adaptive production networks.

To counteract the adverse effects of shocks, such as the global pandemic, on the economy, governments have discussed policies to improve the resilience of supply chains by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. In this paper, we develop and quantify an adaptive production network model to study network resilience and the consequences of reshoring of supply chains. In our model, firms exit due to exogenous shocks or the propagation of shocks through the network, while firms can replace suppliers they have lost due to exit subject to switching costs and search frictions.

THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE-OFF OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES.

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality.

Global supply chains in the pandemic.

We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains.

Sub-MW peak power diffraction-limited chirped-pulse monolithic Yb-doped tapered fiber amplifier.

We demonstrate a novel amplification regime in a counter-pumped, relatively long (2 meters), large mode area, highly Yb-doped and polarization-maintaining tapered fiber, which offers a high peak power directly from the amplifier. The main feature of this regime is that the amplifying signal propagates through a thin part of the tapered fiber without amplification and experiences an extremely high gain in the thick part of the tapered fiber, where most of the pump power is absorbed. In this regime, we have demonstrated 8 ps pulse amplification to a peak power of up to 0.