Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.

"Harry Potter and the Multitudinous Maladies": a retrospective population-based observational study of morbidity and mortality among witches and wizards.

Objectives: To describe the prevalence of maladies and deaths among witches and wizards in the Harry Potter world, their causes, and associated therapies.

Design: Retrospective population-based observational study (report analysis) undertaken 10 February - 19 March 2022.

Setting: All locations described in the Harry Potter books, predominantly Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, but also selected locations, including Privet Drive No 4, Diagon Alley, the Ministry of Magic, and The Burrow.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

Pregnancy outcome prediction after embryo transfer based on serum human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations.

Objective: The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive value of the human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration on the 14th and 16th post-ovulation day after embryo transfer/cryoembryo transfer as well as the dynamics of its increase with respect to the outcome of pregnancy.

Materials And Methods: In total, 130 embryo transfers and cryoembryo transfers in women aged 22 to 38 years who experienced a single embryo transfer or single cryoembryo transfer with confirmed pregnancy (hCG level over 15 IU/l on 14th post-ovulation day - D14) were selected. The input parameters (hCG D14, hCG D16, hCG D16-D14, hCG D16/D14 and positivity of at least 2.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by eclampsia - analysis of cases from 2008-2018.

Objective: Evaluation of perinatal results in a set of pregnancies complicated by eclampsia.

Methods: Analysis of 67,304 births performed at the Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Masaryk University, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Brno from 2008-2018. During the given period, eclampsia was dia-gnosed in 16 mothers (0.

The Impact of Cold Spells on the Incidence of Infectious Gastroenteritis and Relapse Rates of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Retrospective Controlled Observational Study.

Goals: We aimed to assess the impact of very cold days on inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) flares and infectious gastroenteritis (IG). We defined a cold day using the World Meteorological definition of an ice day, which is a day with a maximum temperature below 0°C.

Background: Recently, we have shown that heat waves increase the risk for IG and IBD flares.

Placebo by Proxy in Neonatal Randomized Controlled Trials: Does It Matter?

Placebo effects emerging from the expectations of relatives, also known as placebo by proxy, have seldom been explored. The aim of this study was to investigate whether in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) there is a clinically relevant difference in long-term outcome between very preterm infants whose parents assume that verum (PAV) had been administered and very preterm infants whose parents assume that placebo (PAP) had been administered. The difference between the PAV and PAP infants with respect to the primary outcome-IQ at 5 years of age-was considered clinically irrelevant if the confidence interval (CI) for the mean difference resided within our pre-specified ±5-point equivalence margins.

The impact of mild induced hypothermia on the rate of transfusion and the mortality in severely injured patients: a retrospective multi-centre study.

Background: Although under discussion, induced hypothermia (IH) is an established therapy for patients with cardiac arrest or traumatic brain injuries. The influences on coagulopathy and bleeding tendency in severely injured patients (SIP) with concomitant traumatic brain injury are most widely unclear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to quantify the effect of mild IH in SIP with concomitant severe traumatic brain injuries on transfusion rate and mortality.

Parsimonious Model for Simulating Total Mercury and Methylmercury in Boreal Streams Based on Riparian Flow Paths and Seasonality.

The complexity of mercury (Hg) biogeochemistry has made it difficult to model surface water concentrations of both total Hg (THg) and especially methylmercury (MeHg), the species of Hg having the highest potential for bioaccumulation. To simulate THg and MeHg variation in low-order streams, we have adapted a conceptual modeling framework where a continuum of lateral flows through riparian soils determines streamflow concentrations. The model was applied to seven forest catchments located in two boreal regions in Sweden spanning a range of climatic, soil, and forest management conditions.

Electrocardiographic features of disease progression in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia.

Background: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is considered a progressive cardiomyopathy. However, data on the clinical features of disease progression are limited. The aim of this study was to assess 12-lead surface electrocardiographic (ECG) changes during long-term follow-up, and to compare these findings with echocardiographic data in our large cohort of patients with ARVC/D.

Clinical role of atrial arrhythmias in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia.

Background: The clinical role of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF-AFl) and variables predicting these arrhythmias are not well defined in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD). We hypothesized that transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) would be helpful in predicting AF-AFl in these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: ECGs and TTEs of 90 patients diagnosed with definite or borderline ARVD (2010 Task Force Criteria) were analyzed.

Randomized controlled trials in very preterm infants: does inclusion in the study result in any long-term benefit?

Background: Since the introduction of randomized controlled trials (RCT) in clinical research, there has been discussion of whether enrolled patients have worse or better outcomes than comparable non-participants.

Objective: To investigate whether very preterm infants randomized to a placebo group in an RCT have equivalent neurodevelopmental outcomes to infants who were eligible but not randomized (eligible NR).

Methods: In the course of an RCT investigating the neuroprotective effect of early high-dose erythropoietin on the neurodevelopment of very preterm infants, the outcome data of 72 infants randomized to placebo were retrospectively compared with those of 108 eligible NR infants.

Usefulness of electrocardiographic parameters for risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia.

The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome.

A pilot study describing access to emergency care in two states using a model emergency care categorization system.

Objectives: The Institute of Medicine (IOM)'s "Future of Emergency Care" report recommended the categorization and regionalization of emergency care, but no uniform system to categorize hospital emergency care capabilities has been developed. The absence of such a system limits the ability to benchmark outcomes, to develop regional systems of care, and of patients to make informed decisions when seeking emergency care. The authors sought to pilot the deployment of an emergency care categorization system in two states.

Synthesis of MPTS-modified cobalt ferrite nanoparticles and their adsorption properties in relation to Au(III).

Cobalt ferrite magnetic nanoparticles (Co-MNP) were prepared by a co-precipitation method and subsequently coated with (3-mercaptopropyl)trimethoxysilane (MPTS) for the extraction and recovery of Au(III) from aqueous chloride solutions. Physical characterization of the MPTS-modified particles (Co-MPTS) was performed using FT-IR, TGA, and SEM. Results from FT-IR confirmed that MPTS was present on the surface of the magnetic nanoparticles.

Early onset pauciarticular arthritis is the major risk factor for naproxen-induced pseudoporphyria in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

Pseudoporphyria (PP) is characterized by skin fragility, blistering and scarring in sun-exposed skin areas without abnormalities in porphyrin metabolism. The phenylpropionic acid derivative group of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, especially naproxen, is known to cause PP. Naproxen is currently one of the most prescribed drugs in the therapy of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).