The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO and land use.

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent.