Publications by authors named "Andre Ariew"

Charles Darwin as a statistical thinker.

Stud Hist Philos Sci

October 2022

Recently historians and philosophers of science have been interested in the role of statistics and probability in investigating population variation. The focus is typically on investigators applying statistics and probability to explain large scale phenomenon that arise out of the collective behavior of numerous and varied individuals. The case studies that inform this work come mostly from molecular physics and 20th century genetical versions of evolutionary theory.

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Natural selection is commonly seen not just as an explanation for adaptive evolution, but as the inevitable consequence of "heritable variation in fitness among individuals". Although it remains embedded in biological concepts, such a formalisation makes it tempting to explore whether this precondition may be met not only in life as we know it, but also in other physical systems. This would imply that these systems are subject to natural selection and may perhaps be investigated in a biological framework, where properties are typically examined in light of their putative functions.

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Over the last six decades there has been a consistent trend in the philosophy literature to emphasize the role of causes in scientific explanation. The emphasis on causes even pervades discussions of non-causal explanations. For example, the concern of a recent paper by Marc Lange (2013b) is whether purported cases of statistical explanation are "really statistical" or really causal.

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Charles Darwin, James Clerk Maxwell, and Francis Galton were all aware, by various means, of Aldolphe Quetelet's pioneering work in statistics. Darwin, Maxwell, and Galton all had reason to be interested in Quetelet's work: they were all working on some instance of how large-scale regularities emerge from individual events that vary from one another; all were rejecting the divine interventionistic theories of their contemporaries; and Quetelet's techniques provided them with a way forward. Maxwell and Galton all explicitly endorse Quetelet's techniques in their work; Darwin does not incorporate any of the statistical ideas of Quetelet, although natural selection post-twentieth century synthesis has.

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