Open Source Energy System Modeling Using Break-Even Costs to Inform State-Level Policy: A North Carolina Case Study.

Rigorous model-based analysis can help inform state-level energy and climate policy. In this study, we utilize an open-source energy system optimization model and publicly available data sets to examine future electricity generation, CO emissions, and CO abatement costs for the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. Model scenarios include uncertainty in future fuel prices, a hypothetical CO cap, and an extended renewable portfolio standard.

US Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Absence of Federal Climate Policy.

The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy has raised questions about the country's future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions relatively flat or produce modest reductions: in the absence of new federal policy, 2040 greenhouse gas emissions range from +10% to -23% of the baseline estimate. Natural gas versus coal utilization in the electric sector represents a key trade-off, particularly under conservative assumptions about future technology innovation.