Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19 infections from October 1st, 2021, until the end of April 2022 in the United Arab Emirates is presented. Our simulation results indicate that: (i) the vaccination status of the visitors appears to have a small impact on cases, this is expected as the small numbers of temporary visitors with respect to the total population contribute little to the herd immunity status; and (ii) the number of infected arrivals is the major factor of impact potentially causing a surge in cases countrywide with the subsequent hospitalisations and fatalities.

Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study.

Objectives: To determine the population level costs, effects, and cost effectiveness of selected, individual based interventions to combat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in the context of low and middle income countries.

Design: Sectoral cost effectiveness analysis using a lifetime population model.

Setting: Two World Health Organization sub-regions of the world: countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality (AfrE); and countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality (SearD).

Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS.

Substantial changes are needed to achieve a more targeted and strategic approach to investment in the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic that will yield long-term dividends. Until now, advocacy for resources has been done on the basis of a commodity approach that encouraged scaling up of numerous strategies in parallel, irrespective of their relative effects. We propose a strategic investment framework that is intended to support better management of national and international HIV/AIDS responses than exists with the present system.

The economic impact of chronic diseases: how do households respond to shocks? Evidence from Russia.

The epidemiological burden of chronic diseases is increasing worldwide and there is very little empirical evidence regarding the economic impact of chronic diseases on individuals and households. The primary objective of this paper is to explore the evidence on how chronic diseases affect household healthcare expenditure, non-health consumption, labour (earned) income, and to demonstrate how transfers may provide some insurance against shocks from chronic diseases. We have explicated a two-part Heckit model on household level data obtained from the Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS) from Russia to control for nontrivial proportion of zeros in the dependent variables, skewed distribution of expenditure data and endogeneity.