Publications by authors named "Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar"
Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics.
Ambio
December 2024
Article Synopsis
- * A study using a system dynamics model shows that the increasing costs and reduced profits from irrigation water scarcity could limit further agricultural development by 2040.
- * Sustainable management of the Rio Grande Basin's water resources and alternative energy solutions are essential to address the challenges posed by agricultural growth and its impact on water availability and energy demand.
Article Synopsis
- To address environmental degradation, societies need to redefine their relationship with nature, aiming for a sustainable future as outlined by the Convention of Biological Diversity.
- The Nature Futures Framework was created to explore various perspectives on achieving ecological harmony, providing a platform for developing scenarios and narratives about desirable futures.
- The paper assesses six different narratives within the framework, focusing on key debates about land use and economic development, ultimately suggesting that this approach can help shape transformative pathways for a sustainable relationship with nature.
The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041-2070) and late (2071-2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFFollowing an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions.
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