Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination.

Background: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking.

Objectives: We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020.

Methods: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed.