Impact of late rainy season indoor residual spraying on holoendemic malaria transmission: a cohort study in northern Zambia.

Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a malaria control strategy implemented before the rainy season. Nchelenge District, Zambia is a holoendemic setting where IRS has been conducted since 2008 with little impact on malaria incidence or parasite prevalence. Pre-rainy season IRS may not reduce the post-rainy season peak abundance of the major vector, Anopheles funestus.

Impact of pandemic-induced service disruptions and behavioral changes on HCV and HIV transmission amongst people who inject drugs: a modeling study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic may have disproportionally impacted vulnerable groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID) through reduced healthcare services as well as social changes from pandemic mitigation measures. Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation strategies subsequently changed the trajectory of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV transmission is critical to estimating disease burdens, identifying outbreak risk, and developing informed intervention strategies.

Methods: Using behavioral data from the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience (ALIVE) study, an ongoing community-based cohort of PWID in Baltimore, USA, and an individual-based network model, we explored the impacts of service disruptions combined with changes in social networks and injecting behaviors of PWID on HCV and HIV transmission.

Individual Heterogeneity and Trends in Hepatitis C Infection Risk Among People Who Inject Drugs: A Longitudinal Analysis.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes substantial morbidity and mortality, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID). While elimination of HCV as a public health problem may be possible through treatment-as-prevention, reinfection can attenuate the impact of treatment scale-up. There is a need to better understand the distribution and temporal trends in HCV infection risk, including among HCV-seropositive individuals who will be eligible for treatment and at risk for subsequent reinfection.

Challenges and Approaches to Establishing Multi-Pathogen Serosurveillance: Findings from the 2023 Serosurveillance Summit.

Multiplex-based serological surveillance is a valuable but underutilized tool to understand gaps in population-level exposure, susceptibility, and immunity to infectious diseases. Assays for which blood samples can be tested for antibodies against several pathogens simultaneously, such as multiplex bead immunoassays, can more efficiently integrate public health surveillance in low- and middle-income countries. On March 7-8, 2023 a group of experts representing research institutions, multilateral organizations, private industry, and country partners met to discuss experiences, identify challenges and solutions, and create a community of practice for integrated, multi-pathogen serosurveillance using multiplex bead assay technologies.

Adjusting mobile phone data to account for children's travel and the impact on measles dynamics in Zambia.

Models of measles transmission can be used to identify areas of high risk to tailor immunization strategies. Estimates of spatial connectivity can be derived from data such as mobile phone records, however it is not clear how this maps to the movement of children who are more likely to be infected. Using travel surveys across two districts in Zambia and national mobile phone data, we compared estimates of out-of-district travel for the population captured in the mobile phone data and child-specific travel from travel surveys.

Geography versus sociodemographics as predictors of changes in daily mobility across the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic: a two-stage regression analysis across 26 metropolitan areas.

Objective: We investigated whether a zip code's location or demographics are most predictive of changes in daily mobility throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design: We used a population-level study to examine the predictability of daily mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic using a two-stage regression approach, where generalised additive models (GAM) predicted mobility trends over time at a large spatial level, then the residuals were used to determine which factors (location, zip code-level features or number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in place) best predict the difference between a zip code's measured mobility and the average trend on a given date.

Setting: We analyse zip code-level mobile phone records from 26 metropolitan areas in the USA on 15 March-31 September 2020, relative to October 2020.

Comparing lagged impacts of mobility changes and environmental factors on COVID-19 waves in rural and urban India: a Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling study.

Previous research in India has identified urbanisation, human mobility and population demographics as key variables associated with higher district level COVID-19 incidence. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of mobility patterns in rural and urban areas in India, in conjunction with other drivers of COVID-19 transmission, have not been fully investigated. We explored travel networks within India during two pandemic waves using aggregated and anonymized weekly human movement datasets obtained from Google, and quantified changes in mobility before and during the pandemic compared with the mean baseline mobility for the 8-week time period at the beginning of 2020.

Temporal genomic analysis of reveals increased prevalence of mutations associated with delayed clearance following treatment with artemisinin-lumefantrine in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia.

The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance is an impediment to malaria control and elimination in Africa. Analysis of temporal trends in molecular markers of resistance is critical to inform policy makers and guide malaria treatment guidelines. In a low and seasonal transmission region of southern Zambia, we successfully genotyped 85.

Malaria Transmission at The Zimbabwe-Mozambique Border: An Observational Study of Parasitemia by Travel History and Household Location.

Cross-border human population movement contributes to malaria transmission in border regions, impeding national elimination. However, its impact in low-to-moderate transmission settings is not well characterized. This community-based study in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, estimated the association of parasite prevalence with self-reported overnight travel to Mozambique and household distance to the border from 2012-2020.

Who is missed in a community-based survey: Assessment and implications of biases due to incomplete sampling frame in a community-based serosurvey, Choma and Ndola Districts, Zambia, 2022.

Community-based serological studies are increasingly relied upon to measure disease burden, identify population immunity gaps, and guide control and elimination strategies; however, there is little understanding of the potential for and impact of sampling biases on outcomes of interest. As part of efforts to quantify measles immunity gaps in Zambia, a community-based serological survey using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling approach was conducted in Ndola and Choma districts in May-June 2022, enrolling 1245 individuals. We carried out a follow-up study among individuals missed from the sampling frame of the serosurvey in July-August 2022, enrolling 672 individuals.

Injection network drivers of HIV prevention service utilization among people who inject drugs: results of a community-based sociometric network cohort in New Delhi, India.

Introduction: Injection drug networks may influence their network members' health-seeking behaviours. Using data from a sociometric injecting partner network of people who inject drugs (PWID) in New Delhi, India, we assessed the role of injecting partner (alter) behaviours on individual engagement in HIV prevention services.

Methods: We enumerated injecting partner linkages among 2512 PWID using coupon referrals and biometric data from November 2017 to March 2020.

Characterizing mobility patterns and malaria risk factors in semi-nomadic populations of Northern Kenya.

While many studies have characterized mobility patterns and disease dynamics of settled populations, few have focused on more mobile populations. Highly mobile groups are often at higher disease risk due to their regular movement that may increase the variability of their environments, reduce their access to health care, and limit the number of intervention strategies suitable for their lifestyles. Quantifying the movements and their associated disease risks will be key to developing interventions more suitable for mobile populations.

Characterizing mobility patterns and malaria risk factors in semi-nomadic populations of Northern Kenya.

While many studies have characterized mobility patterns and disease dynamics of individuals from settled populations, few have focused on more mobile populations. Highly mobile groups are often at higher disease risk due to their regular movement that may increase the variability of their environments, reduce their access to health care, and limit the number of intervention strategies suitable for their lifestyles. Quantifying the movements and their associated disease risks will be key to developing intervention strategies more suitable for mobile populations.

Network centrality and HIV prevention service use among people who inject drugs: Findings from a sociometric network cohort in New Delhi, India.

Background And Aims: Network centrality, an indicator of an individual's importance and potential to drive behavioral change, is rarely used to select peer educators. Individual-level predictors of network centrality might be useful to identify people who inject drugs (PWID) for potential roles as peer navigators or change agents in network-based interventions in settings where sociometric data are unavailable. We assessed the relationship between network centrality and HIV prevention service engagement to determine whether centrally-positioned PWID share measurable commonalities.

Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school closures. Given the importance of human mobility in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there have been an increase in analyses of mobility data to understand the COVID-19 pandemic to date. However, despite an abundance of these analyses, few have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number.

Novel bioinformatic methods and machine learning approaches reveal candidate biomarkers of the intensity and timing of past exposure to Plasmodium falciparum.

Accurately quantifying the burden of malaria over time is an important goal of malaria surveillance efforts and can enable effective targeting and evaluation of interventions. Malaria surveillance methods capture active or recent infections which poses several challenges to achieving malaria surveillance goals. In high transmission settings, asymptomatic infections are common and therefore accurate measurement of malaria burden demands active surveillance; in low transmission regions where infections are rare accurate surveillance requires sampling large subsets of the population; and in any context monitoring malaria burden over time necessitates serial sampling.

Fine scale human mobility changes within 26 US cities in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with distance and income.

Human mobility patterns changed greatly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite many analyses investigating general mobility trends, there has been less work characterising changes in mobility on a fine spatial scale and developing frameworks to model these changes. We analyse zip code-level within-city mobility data from 26 US cities between February 2 -August 31, 2020.

Temporal and spatial analysis of Plasmodium falciparum genomics reveals patterns of parasite connectivity in a low-transmission district in Southern Province, Zambia.

Background: Understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of malaria transmission will help to inform effective interventions and strategies in regions approaching elimination. Parasite genomics are increasingly used to monitor epidemiologic trends, including assessing residual transmission across seasons and importation of malaria into these regions.

Methods: In a low and seasonal transmission setting of southern Zambia, a total of 441 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from 8 neighbouring health centres between 2012 and 2018 were genotyped using molecular inversion probes (MIPs n = 1793) targeting a total of 1832 neutral and geographically informative SNPs distributed across the parasite genome.

Declining Age-Specific Seroprevalence and Seroconversion Rates in Plasmodium falciparum from 2009 to 2018 Documents Progress toward Malaria Elimination in Southern Zambia.

Obtaining accurate malaria surveillance data is challenging in low-transmission settings because large sample sizes are required to estimate incidence and prevalence precisely. Serology is an additional tool to document progress toward malaria elimination. An enzyme immunoassay to Plasmodium falciparum lysate was used to estimate age-specific seroprevalence among residents of southern Zambia, where malaria transmission has declined to pre-elimination levels during the past two decades.