African swine fever detection and transmission estimates using homogeneous versus heterogeneous model formulation in stochastic simulations within pig premises.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important foreign animal diseases to the U.S. swine industry.

Predicting the time to detect moderately virulent African swine fever virus in finisher swine herds using a stochastic disease transmission model.

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and devastating pig disease that has caused extensive global economic losses. Understanding ASF virus (ASFV) transmission dynamics within a herd is necessary in order to prepare for and respond to an outbreak in the United States. Although the transmission parameters for the highly virulent ASF strains have been estimated in several articles, there are relatively few studies focused on moderately virulent strains.

Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains.

Understanding the amount of virus shed at the flock level by birds infected with low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) over time can help inform the type and timing of activities performed in response to a confirmed LPAIV-positive premises. To this end, we developed a mathematical model which allows us to estimate viral shedding by 10,000 turkey toms raised in commercial turkey production in the United States, and infected by H7 LPAIV strains. We simulated the amount of virus shed orally and from the cloaca over time, as well as the amount of virus in manure.

A Retrospective Study of Early . Late Virus Detection and Depopulation on Egg Laying Chicken Farms Infected with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus During the 2015 H5N2 Outbreak in the United States.

The 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 outbreak affected more than 200 Midwestern U.S. poultry premises.

The Risk of Highly Pathogenic Influenza A Virus Transmission to Turkey Hen Flocks Through Artificial Insemination.

Artificial insemination is a routine practice for turkeys that can introduce pathogens into breeder flocks in a variety of ways. In this manuscript, a risk analysis on the potential transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to naïve hens through artificial insemination is presented. A case of HPAI on a stud farm where the potential transmission of the virus to susceptible hens in the 2015 H5N2 HPAI outbreak in Minnesota is described along with documentation of known and potential transmission pathways from the case.

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Uganda: Implications of complacency and early easing of lockdown.

Background: Uganda has a unique set up comprised of resource-constrained economy, social-economic challenges, politically diverse regional neighborhood and home to long-standing refuge crisis that comes from long and protracted conflicts of the great lakes. The devastation of the on-going global pandemic outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is likely to be escalated by these circumstances with expectations of the impact of the disease being severe.

Materials And Methods: In this study, we formulate a mathematical model that incorporates the currently known disease characteristics and tracks various intervention measures that the government of Uganda has implemented since the reporting of the first case in March 2020.

Estimating epidemiological parameters using diagnostic testing data from low pathogenicity avian influenza infected turkey houses.

Limiting spread of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) during an outbreak is critical to reduce the negative impact on poultry producers and local economies. Mathematical models of disease transmission can support outbreak control efforts by estimating relevant epidemiological parameters. In this article, diagnostic testing data from each house on a premises infected during a LPAI H5N2 outbreak in the state of Minnesota in the United States in 2018 was used to estimate the time of virus introduction and adequate contact rate, which determines the rate of disease spread.

Assessment of replicate numbers for titrating avian influenza virus using dose-response models.

Embryonating chicken eggs (ECEs) are among the most sensitive laboratory host systems for avian influenza virus (AIV) titration, but ECEs are expensive and require space for storage and incubation. Therefore, reducing ECE use would conserve resources. We utilized statistical modeling to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AIV titration with 3 instead of 5 ECEs for each dilution by the Reed-Muench method for 50% endpoint calculation.

Mortality-Based Triggers and Premovement Testing Protocols for Detection of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercial Upland Game Birds.

Outbreaks involving avian influenza viruses are often devastating to the poultry industry economically and otherwise. Disease surveillance is critically important because it facilitates timely detection and generates confidence that infected birds are not moved during business continuity intended to mitigate associated economic losses. The possibility of using an abnormal increase in daily mortality to levels that exceed predetermined thresholds as a trigger to initiate further diagnostic investigations for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in the flock is explored.

Analysis of geographic location and pathways for influenza A virus infection of commercial upland game bird and conventional poultry farms in the United States of America.

Background: Avian influenza (AI) is an infectious viral disease that affects several species and has zoonotic potential. Due to its associated health and economic repercussions, minimizing AI outbreaks is important. However, most control measures are generic and mostly target pathways important for the conventional poultry farms producing chickens, turkeys, and eggs and may not target other pathways that may be specific to the upland game bird sector.

Avian Influenza in the U.S. Commercial Upland Game Bird Industry: An Analysis of Selected Practices as Potential Exposure Pathways and Surveillance System Data Reporting.

Producing a smaller yield of higher-value birds compared to conventional poultry production, the U.S. commercial upland game bird industry deals primarily in the sale of live birds for recreational hunting.

Spatial transmission of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza between Minnesota poultry premises during the 2015 outbreak.

The spatial spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 during the 2015 outbreak in the U.S. state of Minnesota was analyzed through the estimation of a spatial transmission kernel, which quantifies the infection hazard an infectious premises poses to an uninfected premises some given distance away.

Preparing for a Foreign Animal Disease Outbreak Using a Novel Tabletop Exercise.

Unlabelled: IntroductionForeign animal disease (FAD) outbreaks can have devastating impacts, but they occur infrequently in any specific sector anywhere in the United States (US). Training to proactively discuss implementation of control and prevention strategies are beneficial in that they provide stakeholders with the practical information and educational experience they will need to respond effectively to an FAD. Such proactive approaches are the mission of the Secure Food System (SFS; University of Minnesota; St.

Quantifying the effect of swab pool size on the detection of influenza A viruses in broiler chickens and its implications for surveillance.

Background: Timely diagnosis of influenza A virus infections is critical for outbreak control. Due to their rapidity and other logistical advantages, lateral flow immunoassays can support influenza A virus surveillance programs and here, their field performance was proactively assessed. The performance of real-time polymerase chain reaction and two lateral flow immunoassay kits (FluDETECT and VetScan) in detecting low pathogenicity influenza A virus in oropharyngeal swab samples from experimentally inoculated broiler chickens was evaluated and at a flock-level, different testing scenarios were analyzed.

A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV).

A stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda.

Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia reveals minimal target profiles for improved vaccines and diagnostic assays.

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a cattle disease that has hampered the development of the livestock sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, vaccination with a live vaccine strain is its recommended control measure although unofficial antimicrobial use is widely practiced. Here, modelling techniques are used to assess the potential impact of early elimination of infected cattle via accurate diagnosis on CBPP dynamics.

Small distances can keep bacteria at bay for days.

Transmission of pathogens between spatially separated hosts, i.e., indirect transmission, is a commonly encountered phenomenon important for epidemic pathogen spread.

Estimating the per-contact probability of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N7) virus during the 2003 epidemic in The Netherlands.

Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced.

Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms.

A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms.