Comparing the Lifestyle Interventions for Prediabetes: An Integrated Microsimulation and Population Simulation Model.

We developed a model to compare the impacts of different lifestyle interventions among prediabetes individuals and to identify the optimal age groups for such interventions. A stochastic simulation was developed to replicate the prediabetes and diabetes trends (1997-2010) in the U.S.

Modeling the Impact of Transcendental Meditation on Stroke Incidence and Mortality.

Objectives: Meditation has shown promise in clinical trials in reducing systolic blood pressure, one of the main risk factors for stroke. We aim to estimate the potential benefits of popularizing meditation on stroke incidence and mortality in the United States (U.S.

Efficient and Fair Heart Allocation Policies for Transplantation.

The optimal allocation of limited donated hearts to patients on the waiting list is one of the top priorities in heart transplantation management. We developed a simulation model of the US waiting list for heart transplantation to investigate the potential impacts of allocation policies on several outcomes such as pre- and posttransplant mortality. We used data from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) and the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient (SRTR) to simulate the heart allocation system.

HIV Treatment in Resource-Limited Environments: Treatment Coverage and Insights.

Background: The effects of antiretroviral treatment on the HIV epidemic are complex. HIV-infected individuals survive longer with treatment, but are less likely to transmit the disease. The standard coverage measure improves with the deaths of untreated individuals and does not consider the fact that some individuals may acquire the disease and die before receiving treatment, making it susceptible to overestimating the long-run performance of antiretroviral treatment programs.

Measuring the Potential Impact of Combination HIV Prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa.

A public health approach to combination HIV prevention is advocated to contain the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We explore the implications of universal access to treatment along with HIV education scale-up in the region. We develop an HIV transmission model to investigate the impacts of universal access to treatment, as well as an analytical framework to estimate the effects of HIV education scale-up on the epidemic.

Evaluating the impact of prioritization of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis in New York.

Objective: To compare the value and effectiveness of different prioritization strategies of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in New York City (NYC).

Design: Mathematical modelling utilized as clinical trial is not feasible.

Methods: Using a model accounting for both sexual and parenteral transmission of HIV, we compare different PrEP prioritization strategies (PPS) with two scenarios – no PrEP and PrEP for all susceptible at-risk individuals.

Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

Background: Many analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Objectives: To determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Averting HIV infections in New York City: a modeling approach estimating the future impact of additional behavioral and biomedical HIV prevention strategies.

Background: New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically.

Methods: A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model.