Unravelling COVID-19 waves in Rio de Janeiro city: Qualitative insights from nonlinear dynamic analysis.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in 2019, it has rapidly spread around the world. Many countries implemented several measures to try to control the virus spreading. The healthcare system and consequently the general quality of life population in the cities have all been significantly impacted by the Coronavirus pandemic.

Uncertainty quantification in mechanistic epidemic models via cross-entropy approximate Bayesian computation.

This paper proposes a data-driven approximate Bayesian computation framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification of epidemic models, which incorporates two novelties: (i) the identification of the initial conditions by using plausible dynamic states that are compatible with observational data; (ii) learning of an informative prior distribution for the model parameters via the cross-entropy method. The new methodology's effectiveness is illustrated with the aid of actual data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city in Brazil, employing an ordinary differential equation-based model with a generalized SEIR mechanistic structure that includes time-dependent transmission rate, asymptomatics, and hospitalizations. A minimization problem with two cost terms (number of hospitalizations and deaths) is formulated, and twelve parameters are identified.

: A code for fitting multi-wave epidemic models.

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a great demand for computational models capable of describing and inferring the evolution of an epidemic outbreak in the short term. In this sense, we introduce , a package that provides a framework for fitting multi-wave epidemic models to data from actual outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

The starting dates of COVID-19 multiple waves.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 spread globally very quickly, causing great concern at the international level due to the severity of the associated respiratory disease, the so-called COVID-19. Considering Rio de Janeiro city (Brazil) as an example, the first diagnosis of this disease occurred in March 2020, but the exact moment when the local spread of the virus started is uncertain as the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system was not widely prepared to detect suspected cases of COVID-19 at that time. Improvements in this surveillance system occurred over the pandemic, but due to the complex nature of the disease transmission process, specifying the exact moment of emergence of new community contagion outbreaks is a complicated task.

ARBO: Arbovirus modeling and uncertainty quantification toolbox.

The ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of mathematical tools to understand and predict outbreaks of severe infectious diseases, including arboviruses such as Zika. To this end, we introduce ARBO, a package for simulation and analysis of arbovirus nonlinear dynamics. The implementation follows a minimalist style, and is intuitive and extensible to many settings of vector-borne disease outbreaks.

Embedded model discrepancy: A case study of Zika modeling.

Mathematical models of epidemiological systems enable investigation of and predictions about potential disease outbreaks. However, commonly used models are often highly simplified representations of incredibly complex systems. Because of these simplifications, the model output, of, say, new cases of a disease over time or when an epidemic will occur, may be inconsistent with the available data.

Flight control of a hexa-rotor airship: Uncertainty quantification for a range of temperature and pressure conditions.

The present paper is concerned with the dynamic modeling and design of control laws for a small non-rigid multi-rotor airship constituted of an oblate-spheroid helium balloon coupled with an electric-powered hexa-rotor airframe. The vehicle is assumed to operate in windless and low-speed conditions. A six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear dynamic model is derived for it using the Newton-Euler approach and considering, among other efforts, a restoring torque due to the displacement of the balloon's center of buoyancy above the vehicle's center of mass and the added-mass effect resulting from the air-structure interaction.