Modeling target-density-based cull strategies to contain foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.

Total ring depopulation is sometimes used as a management strategy for emerging infectious diseases in livestock, which raises ethical concerns regarding the potential slaughter of large numbers of healthy animals. We evaluated a farm-density-based ring culling strategy to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom (UK), which may allow for some farms within rings around infected premises (IPs) to escape depopulation. We simulated this reduced farm density, or "target density", strategy using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, state-transition algorithm.

Historical trends demonstrate a pattern of increasingly frequent and severe spillover events of high-consequence zoonotic viruses.

The COVID-19 pandemic has focused attention on patterns of infectious disease spillover. Climate and land-use changes are predicted to increase the frequency of zoonotic spillover events, which have been the cause of most modern epidemics. Characterising historical trends in zoonotic spillover can provide insights into the expected frequency and severity of future epidemics, but historical epidemiological data remains largely fragmented and difficult to analyse.

Infectious Disease Underreporting Is Predicted by Country-Level Preparedness, Politics, and Pathogen Severity.

Underreporting of infectious diseases is a pervasive challenge in public health that has emerged as a central issue in characterizing the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Infectious diseases are underreported for a range of reasons, including mild or asymptomatic infections, weak public health infrastructure, and government censorship. In this study, we investigated factors associated with cross-country and cross-pathogen variation in reporting.

Keystone nonconsumptive effects within a diverse predator community.

The number of prey killed by diverse predator communities is determined by complementarity and interference among predators, and by traits of particular predator species. However, it is less clear how predators' nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) scale with increasing predator biodiversity. We examined NCEs exerted on mosquitoes by a diverse community of aquatic predators.