A comment on the PCAST report: Skip the "match"/"non-match" stage.

This letter comments on the report "Forensic science in criminal courts: Ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods" recently released by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The report advocates a procedure for evaluation of forensic evidence that is a two-stage procedure in which the first stage is "match"/"non-match" and the second stage is empirical assessment of sensitivity (correct acceptance) and false alarm (false acceptance) rates. Almost always, quantitative data from feature-comparison methods are continuously-valued and have within-source variability.

Score-based likelihood ratios for handwriting evidence.

Score-based approaches for computing forensic likelihood ratios are becoming more prevalent in the forensic literature. When two items of evidential value are entangled via a scorefunction, several nuances arise when attempting to model the score behavior under the competing source-level propositions. Specific assumptions must be made in order to appropriately model the numerator and denominator probability distributions.

Using subsampling to estimate the strength of handwriting evidence via score-based likelihood ratios.

The likelihood ratio paradigm has been studied as a means for quantifying the strength of evidence for a variety of forensic evidence types. Although the concept of a likelihood ratio as a comparison of the plausibility of evidence under two propositions (or hypotheses) is straightforward, a number of issues arise when one considers how to go about estimating a likelihood ratio. In this paper, we illustrate one possible approach to estimating a likelihood ratio in comparative handwriting analysis.

Object-oriented Bayesian networks for paternity cases with allelic dependencies.

This study extends the current use of Bayesian networks by incorporating the effects of allelic dependencies in paternity calculations. The use of object-oriented networks greatly simplify the process of building and interpreting forensic identification models, allowing researchers to solve new, more complex problems. We explore two paternity examples: the most common scenario where DNA evidence is available from the alleged father, the mother and the child; a more complex casewhere DNA is not available from the alleged father, but is available from the alleged father's brother.

Genetic relatedness analysis: modern data and new challenges.

Individuals who belong to the same family or the same population are related because of their shared ancestry. Population and quantitative genetics theory is built with parameters that describe relatedness, and the estimation of these parameters from genetic markers enables progress in fields as disparate as plant breeding, human disease gene mapping and forensic science. The large number of multiallelic microsatellite loci and biallelic SNPs that are now available have markedly increased the precision with which relationships can be estimated, although they have also revealed unexpected levels of genomic heterogeneity of relationship measures.