Impacts of EPA's finalized power plant greenhouse gas standards.

Emissions reductions may be met with relatively small costs.

Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States.

Evidence of the physical and economic impacts of climate change is a critical input to policy development and decision-making. In addition to the magnitude of potential impacts, detailed estimates of where, when, and to whom those damages may occur; the types of impacts that will be most damaging; uncertainties in these damages; and the ability of adaptation to reduce potential risks are all interconnected and important considerations. This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, the Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to rapidly project economic and physical impacts of climate change across 10 000 future scenarios for multiple impact sectors, regions, and populations within the contiguous United States (US).

Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming.

The new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of COP26 represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges. Yet, limiting global warming below 1.5°C this century will require countries to ratchet ambition for 2030 and beyond.

Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

As countries take stock of progress made in accomplishing their climate goals ahead of COP28 this year, it is increasingly apparent that countries must ratchet ambition in policy areas such as non-CO gases and carbon dioxide removal, while halting deforestation to lead the globe on a path consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Role of non-CO greenhouse gas emissions in limiting global warming.

Current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Here we discuss the critical role that non-CO greenhouse gas emissions might play in global climate change stabilization, and challenges and opportunities to pivot research and policy focus towards accelerated reductions of non-CO gases.

Net-Zero CO by 2050 Scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 Study.

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. For this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO by 2050 scenarios in the United States.

Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment.

The Energy System Transformation Needed to Achieve the U.S. Long-Term Strategy.

The authors designed and executed the integrated assessment modeling for the United States Long-Term Strategy. They bring diverse expertise to the modeling and analysis of United States decarbonization. Russell Horowitz, Matthew Binsted, and Haewon McJeon are scientists at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland.

Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models.

ENERGY INTENSIVE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND GHG EMISSIONS.

This paper analyzes changes in U.S. energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) manufacturing over the past decade, through the lens of previously proposed climate policy measures.

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Increased ambition and implementation are essential.

Deep mitigation of CO and non-CO greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures.

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO and non-CO GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO and non-CO GHG abatement pathways.

INTRODUCTION TO THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS.

This paper is an introduction to, "The EMF 32 Study on U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," part of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Model Inter-comparison Project (MIP) number 32.

Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?

This paper develops structural dynamic methods to project future carbon fluxes in forests. These methods account for land management changes on both the intensive and extensive margins, both of which are critical components of future carbon fluxes. When implemented, the model suggests that U.

OVERVIEW OF THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS.

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 32 study on carbon tax scenarios analyzed a set of illustrative policies in the United States that place an economy-wide tax on fossil-fuel-related carbon dioxide (CO) emissions, a carbon tax for short. Eleven modeling teams ran these stylized scenarios, which vary by the initial carbon tax rate, the rate at which the tax escalates over time, and the use of the revenues. Modelers reported their results for the effects of the policies, relative to a reference scenario that does not include a carbon tax, on emissions, economic activity, and outcomes within the U.

POLICY INSIGHTS FROM THE EMF 32 STUDY ON U.S. CARBON TAX SCENARIOS.

The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum exercise 32 (EMF 32) used 11 different models to assess emissions, energy, and economic outcomes from a plausible range of economy-wide carbon price policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in the United States. Here we discuss the most policy-relevant results of the study, mindful of the strengths and weaknesses of current models. Across all models, carbon prices lead to significant reductions in CO emissions and conventional pollutants, with the vast majority of the reductions occurring in the electricity sector.