Publications by authors named "Allen Craig"

An important question in restoration ecology is whether restored ecological regimes are more vulnerable to transitions back to a degraded state. In woody-invaded grasslands, high-intensity fire can collapse woody plant communities and induce a shift back to a grass-dominated regime. Yet, legacies from woody-dominated regimes often persist and it remains unclear whether restored regimes are at heightened vulnerability to reinvasion.

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Article Synopsis
  • Wildfires and climate change are altering forest ecosystems significantly, and postfire management strategies may have long-lasting impacts on how these ecosystems reorganize.
  • A 23-year study in northern New Mexico compared the effects of postfire aerial seeding on vegetation recovery after a high-severity burn, highlighting differences between seeded and unseeded areas.
  • The study found that while seeded areas initially did not differ in bare ground cover, they evolved to have a higher presence of non-native grasses, and high-severity reburning reduced native vegetation more in these seeded plots, indicating a shift towards a grass and shrub-dominated ecosystem.
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Effective governance of social-ecological systems (SES) is an enduring challenge, especially in coastal environments where accelerating impacts of climate change are increasing pressure on already stressed systems. While resilience is often proposed as a suitable framing to re-orient governance and management, the literature includes many different, and sometimes conflicting, definitions and ideas that influence how the concept is applied, especially in coastal environments. This study combines discourse analysis of the coastal governance literature and key informant interviews in Tasmania, Australia, demonstrating inconsistencies and confusion in the way that resilience is framed in coastal governance research and practice.

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Adaptive management is a powerful approach to management of social-ecological systems in circumstances with high uncertainty and high controllability. Cross-scale interactions increase uncertainty while managing. When undertaking adaptive management, although largely overlooked, it is important to account for spatial and temporal scales to mediate within- and cross-scale effects of management actions.

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Vegetation greening has been suggested to be a dominant trend over recent decades, but severe pulses of tree mortality in forests after droughts and heatwaves have also been extensively reported. These observations raise the question of to what extent the observed severe pulses of tree mortality induced by climate could affect overall vegetation greenness across spatial grains and temporal extents. To address this issue, here we analyse three satellite-based datasets of detrended growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 8 km for 1,303 field-documented sites experiencing severe drought- or heat-induced tree-mortality events around the globe.

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Natural resource governance in the face of climate change represents one of the seminal challenges of the Anthropocene. A number of innovative approaches have been developed in, among others, the fields of ecology, governance, and sustainability sciences for managing uncertainty and scarcity through a coordinated approach to natural resource governance. However, the absence of an enabling legal and regulatory framework has been identified in the literature as one of the primary barriers constraining the formal operationalization of these governance approaches.

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Panarchy is a heuristic of complex system change rooted in resilience science. The concept has been rapidly assimilated across scientific disciplines due to its potential to envision and address sustainability challenges, such as climate change and regime shifts, that pose significant challenges for humans in the Anthropocene. However, panarchy has been studied almost exclusively via qualitative research.

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We aimed to infer the effectiveness of officers' training and experience by assessing consistency of behavioural responses between them. If officers facing the same scenario respond in similar ways, this implies their use of shared cognition, through acquired in-common tactical knowledge. Officers ( = 42) responded to a live-acted scenario in which an assailant ultimately discharged his weapon.

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Introduction: the number of wild poliomyelitis cases, worldwide, dropped from 350,000 cases in 1988 to 33 in 2018. Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance is a key strategy toward achieving global polio eradication. The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa infected over 28,000 people and had devastating effects on health systems in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

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Non-technical Summary: The United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) articulate societal aspirations for people and our planet. Many scientists have criticised the SDGs and some have suggested that a better understanding of the complex interactions between society and the environment should underpin the next global development agenda. We further this discussion through the theory of social-ecological resilience, which emphasises the ability of systems to absorb, adapt, and transform in the face of change.

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Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages.

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Species of different sizes interact with the landscape differently because ecological structure varies with scale, as do species movement capabilities and habitat requirements. As such, landscape connectivity is dependent upon the scale at which an animal interacts with its environment. Analyses of landscape connectivity must incorporate ecologically relevant scales to address scale-specific differences.

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Bark beetle infestations have historically been primary drivers of stand thinning in Mexican pine forests. However, bark beetle impacts have become increasingly extensive and intense, apparently associated with climate change. Our objective was to describe the possible association between abundance of bark beetle flying populations and the occurrence of given value intervals of temperature, precipitation and their balance, in order to have a better comprehension of the climatic space that might trigger larger insect abundances, an issue relevant in the context of the ongoing climatic change.

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Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.

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In agroecosystems, bats can provide a critical ecosystem service by consuming night-flying insect pests. However, many bats also face intense population pressures from human landscape modification, global change and novel diseases. To better understand the behavioral activity of different bat species with respect to space, time, habitat, and other bat species in this environment, we investigated species correlations in space and time over row crop agricultural fields.

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The western United States is projected to experience more frequent and severe wildfires in the future due to drier and hotter climate conditions, exacerbating destructive wildfire impacts on forest ecosystems such as tree mortality and unsuccessful post-fire regeneration. While empirical studies have revealed strong relationships between topographical information and plant regeneration, ecological processes in ecosystem models have either not fully addressed topography-mediated effects on the probability of plant regeneration, or the probability is only controlled by climate-related factors, for example, water and light stresses. In this study, we incorporated seedling survival data based on a planting experiment in the footprint of the 2011 Las Conchas Fire into the Photosynthesis and EvapoTranspiration (PnET) extension of the LANDIS-II model by adding topographic and an additional climatic variable to the probability of regeneration.

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The use of fentanyl and its analogs is the primary driver of deaths related to the opioid overdose crisis. In fall 2021, the U.S.

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Article Synopsis
  • Some introduced species can cause significant harm, and understanding which ones pose the greatest risk allows for better prevention and mitigation efforts in ecosystems.
  • Research on the evolutionary history of herbivorous insects and their host plants helps predict potential impacts, particularly using divergence times of these relationships to assess risk.
  • The study tested different phylogenetic datasets and found that, despite variations, predictions regarding the impact of introduced conifer-feeding insects remained consistent, which aids in prioritizing biosecurity measures.
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Individuals with substance use disorder are at a higher risk of contracting HIV and progress more rapidly to AIDS as drugs of abuse, such as cocaine, potentiate the neurotoxic effects of HIV-associated proteins including, but not limited to, HIV-1 trans-activator of transcription (Tat) and the envelope protein Gp120. Neurotoxicity and neurodegeneration are hallmarks of HIV-1-associated neurocognitive disorders (HANDs), which are hypothesized to occur secondary to excitotoxicity from NMDA-induced neuronal calcium dysregulation, which could be targeted with NMDA antagonist drugs. Multiple studies have examined how Gp120 affects calcium influx and how cocaine potentiates this influx; however, they mostly focused on single cells and did not analyze effects in neuronal and vascular brain networks.

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Non-technical Summary: Our analysis shows that the framing of social vulnerability is shaped by a narrow definition of resilience, focusing on post-disaster return and recovery responses. This perspective does not account for the dynamism and non-stationarity of social-ecological systems (SES) which is becoming increasingly important in the face of accelerating environmental change. Incorporating social-ecological resilience into social vulnerability analysis can improve coastal governance by accounting for adaptation and transformation, as well as scale and cross-scale interactions.

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  • There is significant uncertainty in predicting how much CO2 forests can absorb in the future due to factors like tree mortality.
  • By analyzing data from unmanaged forests, researchers have estimated the impact of biomass loss on net carbon productivity and respiration across different global vegetation models.
  • Incorporating new mortality data adjusted the projections, showing a decline in the carbon sink of tropical forests by 2050, especially in South America, while North America's carbon sink may increase.
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Earth's forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality-from published, field-documented mortality events-required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns.

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has substantially impacted health systems globally. To highlight potential opportunities to improve health service delivery in low- and middle-income countries, we describe lessons learned from published literature and experiences responding to the pandemic. The benefits of healthcare service measures implemented during the pandemic with potential for lasting benefits for strengthening health systems are highlighted: 1) innovative pharmaceutical dispensing methods; 2) appointment-based systems in health facilities; 3) telehealth to provide patient care; 4) task shifting to redistribute healthcare workloads; and 5) home-based pulse oximetry to monitor oxygen levels.

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Adaptive capacity is a critical component of building resilience in healthcare (RiH). Adaptive capacity comprises the ability of a system to cope with and adapt to disturbances. However, "shocks," such as the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, can potentially exceed critical adaptation thresholds and lead to systemic collapse.

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Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure.

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