Publications by authors named "Allan Buras"

Germany experienced extreme drought periods in 2018 and 2022, which significantly affected forests. These drought periods were natural experiments, providing valuable insights into how different tree species respond to drought. The quantification of species-specific drought responses may help to identify the most climate-change-resilient tree species, thereby informing effective forest regeneration strategies.

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With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species.

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Tree phenology is a major component of the global carbon and water cycle, serving as a fingerprint of climate change, and exhibiting significant variability both within and between species. In the emerging field of drone monitoring, it remains unclear whether this phenological variability can be effectively captured across numerous tree species. Additionally, the drivers behind interspecific variations in the phenology of deciduous trees are poorly understood, although they may be linked to plant functional traits.

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Article Synopsis
  • The future performance of European beech trees is uncertain due to their sensitivity to drought, and there is limited understanding of how climate change impacts their drought vulnerability across different regions.
  • The study uses a drought index to analyze how drought sensitivity of beech’s secondary growth varies over time, revealing that sensitivity is higher in dry environments and can be influenced by climatic conditions as well as tree competition within forests.
  • Results indicate that during severe droughts, beech growth may become less connected to climatic factors, suggesting a potential decline in drought tolerance and highlighting the complexity of the species' response to climate change.
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Article Synopsis
  • - The study emphasizes the importance of high-resolution annual forest growth maps, using tree-ring width (TRW) data, to better understand forest carbon sequestration and the impact of climate change and drought on forest ecosystems.
  • - By integrating high-resolution Earth observation data with climate and topography information, the researchers found that species-specific models could explain over 52% of variance in tree growth, enhancing the accuracy of growth predictions compared to using just climate and elevation data.
  • - The research successfully generated a map of annual TRW for 2021, demonstrating that combining different data sources can lead to more effective models for forest growth, while also identifying areas where predictions may be less reliable, particularly in climate marginal zones.
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Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified.

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Historically, humans have cleared many forests for agriculture. While this substantially reduced ecosystem carbon storage, the impacts of these land cover changes on terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) have not been adequately resolved yet. Here, we combine high-resolution datasets of satellite-derived GPP and environmental predictor variables to estimate the potential GPP of forests, grasslands, and croplands around the globe.

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The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone.

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Article Synopsis
  • The growth of beech trees (Fagus sylvatica) has been negatively impacted by climate variability, showing declines in recent decades across a large geographic range.* -
  • Models predict that by 2090, growth could decrease by 20% to over 50%, particularly in southern regions where drought conditions are expected to worsen due to climate change.* -
  • These anticipated declines in forest productivity pose significant ecological and economic risks, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies in forest management.*
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Forest decline, in course of climate change, has become a frequently observed phenomenon. Much of the observed decline has been associated with an increasing frequency of climate change induced hotter droughts while decline induced by flooding, late-frost, and storms also play an important role. As a consequence, tree mortality rates have increased across the globe.

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Article Synopsis
  • Recent studies indicate that drought is causing significant tree mortality in European forests, with a lack of extensive quantitative data prior to this analysis.
  • By examining satellite data from 1987 to 2016, researchers found a clear link between drought conditions and increased forest canopy mortality, particularly when water availability drops below certain thresholds.
  • Approximately 500,000 hectares of forest experienced excess mortality due to drought in Europe during this period, highlighting the potential for future droughts to result in even more widespread tree death.
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Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees' phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long-term local selective pressures and management legacies.

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Tree-ring records provide global high-resolution information on tree-species responses to global change, forest carbon and water dynamics, and past climate variability and extremes. The underlying assumption is a stationary (time-stable), quasi-linear relationship between tree growth and environment, which however conflicts with basic ecological and evolutionary theory. Indeed, our global assessment of the relevant tree-ring literature demonstrates non-stationarity in the majority of tested cases, not limited to specific proxies, environmental parameters, regions or species.

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Deciphering the drivers of tree growth is a central aim of dendroecology. In this context, soil conditions may play a crucial role, since they determine the availability of water and nutrients for trees. Yet, effects of systematically differing soil conditions on tree growth render a marginally studied topic.

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The role of future forests in global biogeochemical cycles will depend on how different tree species respond to climate. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of common tree species. We constructed a new network of 310 tree-ring width chronologies from three common tree species (Quercus robur, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica) collected for different ecological, management and climate purposes in the south Baltic Sea region at the border of three bioclimatic zones (temperate continental, oceanic, southern boreal).

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While we generally agree with Slette et al. (Global Change Biol, 2019), that ecologists 'should do better' when defining drought in ecological studies, we argue against the uncritical use of a standardized drought index (such as the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Vicente-Serrano et al. J Climate, 23: 1696-1718, 2010), as a stand-alone criterium for quantifying and reporting drought conditions.

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Provenance trials are used to study the effects of tree origin on climate-growth relationships. Thereby, they potentially identify provenances which appear more resilient to anticipated climate change. However, when studying between provenance variability in growth behavior it becomes important to address potential effects related to site marginality in the context of provenance trials.

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In many parts of the world, especially in the temperate regions of Europe and North-America, accelerated tree growth rates have been observed over the last decades. This widespread phenomenon is presumably caused by a combination of factors like atmospheric fertilization or changes in forest structure and/or management. If not properly acknowledged in the calibration of tree-ring based climate reconstructions, considerable bias concerning amplitudes and trends of reconstructed climatic parameters might emerge or low frequency information is lost.

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Climate change poses certain threats to the World's forests. That is, tree performance declines if species-specific, climatic thresholds are surpassed. Prominent climatic changes negatively affecting tree performance are mainly associated with so-called hotter droughts.

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Tree growth at northern boreal treelines is generally limited by summer temperature, hence tree rings serve as natural archives of past climatic conditions. However, there is increasing evidence that a changing summer climate as well as certain micro-site conditions can lead to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in trees growing in treeline environments. This phenomenon poses a challenge to all applications relying on stable temperature-growth relationships such as temperature reconstructions and dynamic vegetation models.

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The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations.

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Dendrochemical studies in old forests are still underdeveloped. Old trees growing in remote high-elevation areas far from direct human influence constitute a promising biological proxy for the long-term reconstructions of environmental changes using tree-rings. Furthermore, centennial-long chronologies of multi-elemental chemistry at inter- and intra-annual resolution are scarce.

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This paper introduces a new approach-the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)-to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population.

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Element composition of annually resolved tree-rings constitutes a promising biological proxy for reconstructions of environmental conditions and pollution history. However, several methodological and physiological issues have to be addressed before sound conclusions can be drawn from dendrochemical time series. For example, radial and vertical translocation processes of elements in the wood might blur or obscure any dendrochemical signal.

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Plant-associated mycobiomes in extreme habitats are understudied and poorly understood. We analysed Illumina-generated ITS1 sequences from the needle mycobiome of white spruce (Picea glauca) at the northern treeline in Alaska (USA). Sequences were obtained from the same DNA that was used for tree genotyping.

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