Effectiveness of probabilistic contact tracing in epidemic containment: The role of superspreaders and transmission path reconstruction.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores the significance of early stage nonpharmacological intervention strategies. The widespread use of masks and the systematic implementation of contact tracing strategies provide a potentially equally effective and socially less impactful alternative to more conventional approaches, such as large-scale mobility restrictions. However, manual contact tracing faces strong limitations in accessing the network of contacts, and the scalability of currently implemented protocols for smartphone-based digital contact tracing becomes impractical during the rapid expansion phases of the outbreaks, due to the surge in exposure notifications and associated tests.

Statistical mechanics of inference in epidemic spreading.

We investigate the information-theoretical limits of inference tasks in epidemic spreading on graphs in the thermodynamic limit. The typical inference tasks consist in computing observables of the posterior distribution of the epidemic model given observations taken from a ground-truth (sometimes called planted) random trajectory. We can identify two main sources of quenched disorder: the graph ensemble and the planted trajectory.

Matrix Product Belief Propagation for reweighted stochastic dynamics over graphs.

Stochastic processes on graphs can describe a great variety of phenomena ranging from neural activity to epidemic spreading. While many existing methods can accurately describe typical realizations of such processes, computing properties of extremely rare events is a hard task, particularly so in the case of recurrent models, in which variables may return to a previously visited state. Here, we build on the matrix product cavity method, extending it fundamentally in two directions: First, we show how it can be applied to Markov processes biased by arbitrary reweighting factors that concentrate most of the probability mass on rare events.

Inference in conditioned dynamics through causality restoration.

Estimating observables from conditioned dynamics is typically computationally hard. While obtaining independent samples efficiently from unconditioned dynamics is usually feasible, most of them do not satisfy the imposed conditions and must be discarded. On the other hand, conditioning breaks the causal properties of the dynamics, which ultimately renders the sampling of the conditioned dynamics non-trivial and inefficient.

Closest-vector problem and the zero-temperature p-spin landscape for lossy compression.

We consider a high-dimensional random constrained optimization problem in which a set of binary variables is subjected to a linear system of equations. The cost function is a simple linear cost, measuring the Hamming distance with respect to a reference configuration. Despite its apparent simplicity, this problem exhibits a rich phenomenology.

A Bayesian generative neural network framework for epidemic inference problems.

The reconstruction of missing information in epidemic spreading on contact networks can be essential in the prevention and containment strategies. The identification and warning of infectious but asymptomatic individuals (i.e.

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data.

Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic.

Expectation propagation on the diluted Bayesian classifier.

Efficient feature selection from high-dimensional datasets is a very important challenge in many data-driven fields of science and engineering. We introduce a statistical mechanics inspired strategy that addresses the problem of sparse feature selection in the context of binary classification by leveraging a computational scheme known as expectation propagation (EP). The algorithm is used in order to train a continuous-weights perceptron learning a classification rule from a set of (possibly partly mislabeled) examples provided by a teacher perceptron with diluted continuous weights.

Nonconvex image reconstruction via expectation propagation.

The problem of efficiently reconstructing tomographic images can be mapped into a Bayesian inference problem over the space of pixels densities. Solutions to this problem are given by pixels assignments that are compatible with tomographic measurements and maximize a posterior probability density. This maximization can be performed with standard local optimization tools when the log-posterior is a convex function, but it is generally intractable when introducing realistic nonconcave priors that reflect typical images features such as smoothness or sharpness.

Loop Corrections in Spin Models through Density Consistency.

Computing marginal distributions of discrete or semidiscrete Markov random fields (MRFs) is a fundamental, generally intractable problem with a vast number of applications in virtually all fields of science. We present a new family of computational schemes to approximately calculate the marginals of discrete MRFs. This method shares some desirable properties with belief propagation, in particular, providing exact marginals on acyclic graphs, but it differs with the latter in that it includes some loop corrections; i.

Network reconstruction from infection cascades.

Accessing the network through which a propagation dynamics diffuses is essential for understanding and controlling it. In a few cases, such information is available through direct experiments or thanks to the very nature of propagation data. In a majority of cases however, available information about the network is indirect and comes from partial observations of the dynamics, rendering the network reconstruction a fundamental inverse problem.

Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations.

The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics.

An analytic approximation of the feasible space of metabolic networks.

Assuming a steady-state condition within a cell, metabolic fluxes satisfy an underdetermined linear system of stoichiometric equations. Characterizing the space of fluxes that satisfy such equations along with given bounds (and possibly additional relevant constraints) is considered of utmost importance for the understanding of cellular metabolism. Extreme values for each individual flux can be computed with linear programming (as flux balance analysis), and their marginal distributions can be approximately computed with Monte Carlo sampling.

Network dismantling.

We study the network dismantling problem, which consists of determining a minimal set of vertices in which removal leaves the network broken into connected components of subextensive size. For a large class of random graphs, this problem is tightly connected to the decycling problem (the removal of vertices, leaving the graph acyclic). Exploiting this connection and recent works on epidemic spreading, we present precise predictions for the minimal size of a dismantling set in a large random graph with a prescribed (light-tailed) degree distribution.

Inference of causality in epidemics on temporal contact networks.

Investigating into the past history of an epidemic outbreak is a paramount problem in epidemiology. Based on observations about the state of individuals, on the knowledge of the network of contacts and on a mathematical model for the epidemic process, the problem consists in describing some features of the posterior distribution of unobserved past events, such as the source, potential transmissions, and undetected positive cases. Several methods have been proposed for the study of these inference problems on discrete-time, synchronous epidemic models on networks, including naive Bayes, centrality measures, accelerated Monte-Carlo approaches and Belief Propagation.

The Edge-Disjoint Path Problem on Random Graphs by Message-Passing.

We present a message-passing algorithm to solve a series of edge-disjoint path problems on graphs based on the zero-temperature cavity equations. Edge-disjoint paths problems are important in the general context of routing, that can be defined by incorporating under a unique framework both traffic optimization and total path length minimization. The computation of the cavity equations can be performed efficiently by exploiting a mapping of a generalized edge-disjoint path problem on a star graph onto a weighted maximum matching problem.

Statics and Dynamics of Selfish Interactions in Distributed Service Systems.

We study a class of games which models the competition among agents to access some service provided by distributed service units and which exhibits congestion and frustration phenomena when service units have limited capacity. We propose a technique, based on the cavity method of statistical physics, to characterize the full spectrum of Nash equilibria of the game. The analysis reveals a large variety of equilibria, with very different statistical properties.

Bayesian inference of epidemics on networks via belief propagation.

We study several Bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow us to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time evolution of the state of each node given some observations. At difference with most existing methods, we allow very general observation models, including unobserved nodes, state observations made at different or unknown times, and observations of infection times, possibly mixed together.

Perturbation biology: inferring signaling networks in cellular systems.

We present a powerful experimental-computational technology for inferring network models that predict the response of cells to perturbations, and that may be useful in the design of combinatorial therapy against cancer. The experiments are systematic series of perturbations of cancer cell lines by targeted drugs, singly or in combination. The response to perturbation is quantified in terms of relative changes in the measured levels of proteins, phospho-proteins and cellular phenotypes such as viability.

Sharing information to reconstruct patient-specific pathways in heterogeneous diseases.

Advances in experimental techniques resulted in abundant genomic, transcriptomic, epigenomic, and proteomic data that have the potential to reveal critical drivers of human diseases. Complementary algorithmic developments enable researchers to map these data onto protein-protein interaction networks and infer which signaling pathways are perturbed by a disease. Despite this progress, integrating data across different biological samples or patients remains a substantial challenge because samples from the same disease can be extremely heterogeneous.

Simultaneous reconstruction of multiple signaling pathways via the prize-collecting steiner forest problem.

Signaling and regulatory networks are essential for cells to control processes such as growth, differentiation, and response to stimuli. Although many "omic" data sources are available to probe signaling pathways, these data are typically sparse and noisy. Thus, it has been difficult to use these data to discover the cause of the diseases and to propose new therapeutic strategies.

Performance of a cavity-method-based algorithm for the prize-collecting Steiner tree problem on graphs.

We study the behavior of an algorithm derived from the cavity method for the prize-collecting steiner tree (PCST) problem on graphs. The algorithm is based on the zero temperature limit of the cavity equations and as such is formally simple (a fixed point equation resolved by iteration) and distributed (parallelizable). We provide a detailed comparison with state-of-the-art algorithms on a wide range of existing benchmarks, networks, and random graphs.

Inference of sparse combinatorial-control networks from gene-expression data: a message passing approach.

Background: Transcriptional gene regulation is one of the most important mechanisms in controlling many essential cellular processes, including cell development, cell-cycle control, and the cellular response to variations in environmental conditions. Genes are regulated by transcription factors and other genes/proteins via a complex interconnection network. Such regulatory links may be predicted using microarray expression data, but most regulation models suppose transcription factor independence, which leads to spurious links when many genes have highly correlated expression levels.

Estimating the size of the solution space of metabolic networks.

Background: Cellular metabolism is one of the most investigated system of biological interactions. While the topological nature of individual reactions and pathways in the network is quite well understood there is still a lack of comprehension regarding the global functional behavior of the system. In the last few years flux-balance analysis (FBA) has been the most successful and widely used technique for studying metabolism at system level.