Measuring private transfers between generations and gender: an application of national transfer accounts for Austria 2015.

Few data sources provide information on private transfers between generations and gender. We use a novel approach based on the National Transfer Accounts methodology to estimate the value of intra-family transfers between generations by age, gender and parental status in Austria 2015. The paper considers monetary transfers together with transfers of consumption goods and transfers of services produced by non-market work.

The impact of COVID-19 vaccines on the Case Fatality Rate: The importance of monitoring breakthrough infections.

Objectives: This study aimed to test the behavior of the case fatality rate (CFR) in a mixed population of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals by illustrating the role of both the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing deaths and the detection of infections among both the vaccinated (breakthrough infections) and unvaccinated individuals.

Methods: We simulated three hypothetical CFR scenarios that resulted from a different combination of vaccine effectiveness in preventing deaths and the efforts in detecting infections among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

Results: In the presence of vaccines, the CFR depends not only on the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing deaths but also on the detection of breakthrough infections.

Age-Specific Income Trends in Europe: The Role of Employment, Wages, and Social Transfers.

Unlabelled: This study analyses age-specific differences in income trends in nine European countries. Based on data from National Accounts and the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, we quantify age-specific changes in income between 2008 and 2017 and decompose these changes into employment, wages, and public transfer components. Results show that income of the younger age groups stagnated or declined in most countries since 2008, while income of the older population increased.

The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19.

One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by locking down portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms of lost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What is the optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamically over the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal control model that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system's capacity to deliver appropriate care.

An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States.

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups.

How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?

Nations struggled to decide when and how to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and those arguing for continuing the lockdown in some form. We examine the choice between continuing or ending a full lockdown within a simple optimal control model that encompasses both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold.

Redistributive effects of different pension systems when longevity varies by socioeconomic status.

We propose a general analytical framework to model the redistributive features of alternative pension systems when individuals face ex ante differences in mortality. Differences in life expectancy between high and low socioeconomic groups are often large and have widened recently in many countries. Such longevity gaps affect the actuarial fairness and progressivity of public pension systems.

Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using impulse control theory.

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides an economic partial equilibrium model, which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Rush Hour of Life in Austria, Italy and Slovenia.

This article builds on time use data to explore cross-country differences between Austria, Italy and Slovenia in unpaid labour and its implications in terms of gender distribution of total work. A contribution of this paper is to measure the 'rush hour of life' (RHOL) based on age spans in which individuals' working time (including paid and unpaid work) exceeds their free time. In total, men and women work similar hours in Austria, whereas Italy and Slovenia show a gender gap with women working an average of approximately 50 min more per day during prime working ages.

Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend.

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline.

Quantifying Economic Dependency.

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change.

Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse.

With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way.

Production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in Europe: A cross-country comparison.

We compare selected European countries using an economic dependency ratio which emphasizes the role of age-specific levels of production and consumption. Our analysis reveals large differences in the age- and gender-specific level and type of production activities across selected European countries and identifies possible strategies to adjust age-specific economic behaviour to an ageing population. The cross-country differences in economic dependency of children and elderly persons are largely determined by the age at which people enter, respectively exit, the labour market.

Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria.

Current demographic developments in industrialized countries and their consequences for workforce ageing challenge the sustainability of intergenerational transfers and economic growth. A shrinking share of the young workforce will have to support a growing share of elderly, non-working people. Therefore, the productivity of the workforce is central to a sustainable economic future.

The Impact of Policies Influencing the Demography of Age-Structured Populations: Lessons from Academies of Sciences.

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs.

Union instability as an engine of fertility? A microsimulation model for France.

Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unions are not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, union instability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and have additional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forces and their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation and parenthood.

Externalities in a life cycle model with endogenous survival.

We study socially vs individually optimal life cycle allocations of consumption and health, when individual health care curbs own mortality but also has a spillover effect on other persons' survival. Such spillovers arise, for instance, when health care activity at aggregate level triggers improvements in treatment through learning-by-doing (positive externality) or a deterioration in the quality of care through congestion (negative externality). We combine an age-structured optimal control model at population level with a conventional life cycle model to derive the social and private value of life.

Transition to parenthood: the role of social interaction and endogenous networks.

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdependencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing, we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics: age, intended education, and parity.

Do siblings' fertility decisions influence each other?

Individuals' fertility decisions are shaped not only by their own characteristics and life course paths but also by social interaction with others. However, in practice, it is difficult to disentangle the role of social interaction from other factors, such as individual and family background variables. We measure social interaction through the cross-sibling influences on fertility.

The reproductive value in distributed optimal control models.

We show that in a large class of distributed optimal control models (DOCM), where population is described by a McKendrick type equation with an endogenous number of newborns, the reproductive value of Fisher shows up as part of the shadow price of the population. Depending on the objective function, the reproductive value may be negative. Moreover, we show results of the reproductive value for changing vital rates.

Birth month, school graduation, and the timing of births and marriages.

We investigated the timing of fertility and marriage in Sweden using exogenous variation in the age at school graduation that results from differences in birth month. Our analysis found that the difference of 11 months in the age at leaving school between women who were born in two consecutive months, December and January, implies a delay in the age at first birth of 4.9 months.

Fertility and women's employment reconsidered: a macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000.

This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women's employment. This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time-series data from 1960 to 2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time-series techniques) we find causality in both directions.